Nato has announced it is stepping up its presence around Russian borders to reassure eastern European member states, in an effort also aimed at increasing pressure on Moscow before international talks on the Ukrainian crisis on Thursday in Geneva.
The EU and the US intend to tighten sanctions against Moscow after the four-party negotiations – involving foreign ministers from Russia, Ukraineand the US and the EU foreign policy chief, Catherine Ashton – if Moscow does not stop what the west allege is the deliberating stoking of tensions in eastern Ukraine.
Pro-Russian separatists seized six armoured personnel carriers from the Ukrainian army on Wednesday, which they then drove in a victory lap through the centre of two towns held by militia units. Protesters seeking independence from Kiev have occupied at least nine government buildings in the region for more than a week – but this is the first time that separatist forces deep inside Ukraine have managed to seize heavy military equipment, and a further sign that the situation in the east is slipping out of Kiev's grip.
The reinforcements on Nato's eastern flank will take the form of more air patrols over the Baltic states, greater numbers of warships in both the Baltic and eastern Mediterranean, and more troops deployed in eastern Europe.
"Today, we agreed on a package of further military measures to reinforce our collective defence and demonstrate the strength of Allied solidarity," the Nato secretary general, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, said after a meeting of alliance members. "We will have more planes in the air, more ships on the water, and more readiness on the land. For example, air policing aircraft will fly more sorties over the Baltic region. Allied ships will deploy to the Baltic Sea, the eastern Mediterranean and elsewhere, as required."
"Military staff from Allied nations will deploy to enhance our preparedness, training and exercises. Our defence plans will be reviewed and reinforced. We will start to implement these measures straight away. More will follow, if needed, in the weeks and months to come."
The US, which is currently leading the air policing over the Baltic region, reinforced its presence on 20 March, increasing the number of F15 fighter jets based in Lithuania from four to 10. On 1 May, the Poles will take over leadership of the role, sending four Mig-29 jets, which will be augmented by four British Typhoons and up to 10 Danish F16 warplanes. French jets could meanwhile deploy to Poland to bolster patrols there.
The Nato buildup will also involve the redeployment of warships, some of them now participating in counter-piracy operations off Somalia, to the Baltic and the Mediterranean. A Nato official said the details of the naval measures were still being discussed.
The Nato commander in Europe, General Philip Breedlove, said several Nato member states had offered ground troops for deployment in eastern European member states and that he would be soon making recommendations on how they should be positioned. Breedlove said that the situation represented more than a crisis, adding: "For Nato, it's bigger than that. It's a paradigm shift."
However, the general added that he saw no evidence of a strategic Russian buildup on Ukraine's borders. He stressed the military movements were intended entirely to reassure Nato members along Russia's borders who had been unnerved by Russian actions in Ukraine.
The air force general said he had attempted to call the Russian chief of general staff, Valery Gerasimov, to explain that the deployments were entirely defensive but had not been able to reach him.
Meanwhile, EU officials in Brussels said the list of Russians subject to visa bans and asset freezes would be expanded by the end of the week. The US state department also signalled it would co-ordinate a further tightening of sanctions with its European partners, but not before the Geneva talks.
The negotiations will bring together the US secretary of state, John Kerry, his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, the Ukrainian foreign minister, Andrii Deshchytsia, and the EU's Ashton. It will mark the first time the quartet has met since the Ukrainian crisis erupted in February. Western officials, however, cautioned that the talks were unlikely to bring a diplomatic breakthrough.
Interfax-Ukraine: 16. April 2014
Fule: Russian propaganda now more aggressive than during Cold War
Reuters: 16. April 2014
EU lays out impact of financial sanctions on Russia
The European Commission handed documents to EU member states on Wednesday explaining the potential impact on their economies of imposing stricter trade and financial sanctions on Russia over its actions in Ukraine, diplomats said.
Worried about potential leaks of the sensitive data, the Commission informed each country only about the risks it would face, rather than sharing full details with all 28 member states. The assessments were handed out in brown paper envelopes to individual EU ambassadors during a meeting in Brussels.
The documents examine several categories of sanctions, including on energy, finance and trade, setting out the impact imposing the restrictions would have on the bilateral economic relationship between Russia and each country.
"The important thing is that the measures are balanced," said one EU diplomat briefed on the process.
"We can't have a situation where a set of sanctions ends up having a retaliatory impact on one member state or two or three member states. If there are going to be repercussions from this, they have to be shared out."
Countries have until April 22 to respond to the Commission, which will then tailor the package. The aim is to have a consensus by next week so a decision can be taken by EU leaders if the situation in Ukraine worsens.
At a meeting last month, EU leaders agreed they would move to what they have dubbed a third phase of sanctions if there are "any further steps by the Russian Federation to destabilize the situation in Ukraine".
So far the EU has imposed limited sanctions on Moscow, including travel bans and asset freezes on around 30 people identified as being behind the seizure and annexation of Crimea.
RUSSIAN FLAG
The government in Kiev accuses Russia of orchestrating unrest across southern and eastern Ukraine, where pro-Russian paramilitaries have seized buildings and Ukrainian military vehicles, raising the Russian flag. Russia denies stirring up the separatists in the area.
British Foreign Secretary William Hague says it is clear Moscow is behind it and NATO secretary general Anders Fogh Rasmussen made similar comments on Tuesday.
But some EU member states want more evidence that a red line has been crossed before they agree to move to the next stage of sanctions, fearing that pushing ahead too quickly could provoke Russia further or end up hurting their own economies.
Britain, which is in the forefront of those pushing for stricter sanctions, is also among those with the most to lose since Russian companies and wealthy individuals have extensive property, business and banking interests in London.
If there is no further deterioration in Ukraine in the coming days, diplomats say it is unlikely the EU will move to the next stage of sanctions for now. Much also rests on what emerges from talks in Geneva on Thursday among foreign ministers from the United States, Russia and Ukraine and the EU's foreign policy chief.
If there is a deterioration in Ukraine, which two EU diplomats said would involve evidence of Russian troops moving into Ukraine as an invading force, then EU leaders could hold a summit next week to decide on phase three sanctions.
Among the countries with the most to fear from such a step is Germany, which gets around a third of its gas and oil from Russia and exports many industrial goods to Moscow.
Not only would the sanctions have an impact on Germany's economy, it is likely Russia would retaliate with its own measures, compounding the impact.
The same goes for others with close ties to Russia, including Italy, Austria, Cyprus and Greece, which is why forging a consensus among all EU states will prove difficult.
Reuters: 16. April 2014
Ukraine says pro-Russian separatists seize six of its troop carriers
Pro-Russia separatists on Wednesday seized six armoured personnel carriers from the Ukrainian armed forces with the help of Russian agents, Ukraine's defence ministry said.
"A column was blocked by a crowd of local people in Kramatorsk with members of a Russian diversionary-terrorist group among them," the statement said. "As a result of the blocking, extremists seized the equipment."
The statement said the troop carriers were now in Slaviansk, guarded by "people in uniforms who have no relation to Ukraine's armed forces."
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