Lukashenko wants for " new USSR" 30 billion $ a year
The meeting of the presidents of the (RUS, KZH & BL) Customs Union in Minsk to discuss the terms of the Eurasian Union , ended without result. Presidents Vladimir Putin, Nursultan Nazarbayev and Alexander Lukashenko stayed until late in the evening , including two hours talking face to face , but nothing was agreed . Russia , Belarus and Kazakhstan were supose to create a Eurasian Union , but all plans could be delayed until 2025. That is all that chairman of the board of the Eurasian Economic Commission Viktor Khristenko is able to report on the results of negotiations
Officially, it was planned for contract to be signed by Putin , Lukashenko and Nazarbayev at the end of May, but in fact new ("one country") custom & trade regime was supose to start in January next year. Now everything goes on hold. Mostly because in the past two months, the Belarusian leader in their public statements repeatedly spoken so harshly about Russia's politics toward Ukraine. As a result on the this TC summit no breakthroughs were expected.
Criticism from Lukashenko surpeised and concerned mainly Ukrainian Pro-Russia subjects. President of Belarus in all his statements line up in opposition to the Russian colleague and announced that he recognizes the new Kiev authorities , opposed the federalization of Ukraine (on which insists Moscow) and called for preserving the unity of the country. However, experts in Russia almost unanimously predicted that in fact Lukashenko wants and will create an atmosphere of hard trades on oil negotiations- and they were right .
Treaty on the Eurasian Union of 600 pages is expected to unite markets of oil and gas of the three countries . This means that Russia must return the fee colected on Belarus oil & gas, cancel their oil production plans, and after the processing of raw materials purchased at Russian refineries Belarusian costs should be transferred to the budget of the Russian Federation. If that happen and the removal of restrictions take place Russian budget wil have loses $ 33 billion a year. In other words, in exchange for membership in the Eurasian Union, Belarus wants from Russia to take this portion.
Given the prospect of increasing damage due to U.S. and EU sanctions , Moscow is not yet ready for this. If Russia reduce export duties for Belarus , it will turn to her with a sharp increase in, not only costs , but also at the prices on domestic market.
" It will be necessary to decide issues such as jet fuel , where no excise tax , and we need to find a way to deal with issues regarding petrochemicals , where prices will grown serious enough and will create problems . "We'll have to give some subsidies to petrochemical industry " - explains Russian Deputy Finance Sergei Shatalov, a week ago.
Therefore, the Russian delegation proposed to Belarussians their custom costs and fees be excluded until 2018-2020 gg. and at some ponit until 2025 fee regime will be reinstated again. Alexander Lukashenko left no doubt that he don't like the proposition. " The members of the Customs Union should not be bound with any restrictions , especially for energy - said Lukashenko . - And if this benefits would be applied just for a decade, than this decision makes no sense. In that case we can talk only about the Eurasian Economic Union created on a period of ten years ."
After hint being given by "proMaydan" rhetoric of Lukashenko, it is very clear: in ten years a lot can happen. For example, Belarus can get closer to the West through the Eastern Partnership , where she formally enters. Bargaining with Russia on preferences Lukashenko since 2010 repeatedly said that his country would no longer " fly on one wing " , referring to the shift from a purely proRussian foreign policy orientation on multidirectional one.
However,Belarus republic's leadership relations with the EU are still very cool. Against the president, his entourage and the most important companies in the country, for long sanctions had been imposed, and, far more stringent than against Russia. But Lukashenko as it appears again, with his proMaidan statements obviously expects that West, deeply involved in Ukraine crisis, now will mitigate relations with Minsk in defiance to Moscow.
Nevertheless, Russia could win a lot from the creation of the EAEC. Vladimir Putin, known for his ironic attitude toward overthrowing Belarusian counterpart, is aware that this time he must find some compromise . " You can find some things that will be acceptable to all " - his words convey news agencies .
Putin certainly understands that Lukashenko wants to exploit this Russia's vulnerability to achieve his goals , and also, he is ready to maneuver. After all, if the Eurasian Union be broken, difficult and costly progress of Moscow in Ukraine will remain , but though important, it will be particular and more limited. On the other hand, with incorporation of the Crimea and the strengthening of Russia's positions in the southeast of Ukraine, establishment of the EAEC, will be considerd as a strategic breakthrough for larger Russian influence in the global politics and a revenge for the destruction of the USSR.
Perhaps, that is why the signing of the treaty establishing the Eurasian Union is not canceled : it is still scheduled for May 29 , when the summit will be held in Astana, the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council. Experts agree - all questions on the new Union must be resolved before the end of the year.
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