The Rot Among the Rebels in Ukraine

Dealy Beast: 31 May 2014

The Rot Among the Rebels in Ukraine

By Anna Nemtsova

Donetsk, Ukraine - Russian-led paramilitaries from Vostok battalion are fortifying Donetsk's provincial government building after kicking out separatist administrators in "Donetsk 'coup".

The pro-Russian “government” in eastern Ukraine, which thought it controlled the fate of the nation a few days ago, has now lost control even of its own ranks.

DONETSK, Ukraine — Slices of pineapples, batteries, flashlights, and cans of fish swam in puddles of beer on the floor, all dusted with a gooey layer of flour and cornmeal. The giant German hypermarket "Metro" in Donetsk was flooded with looters Friday morning, grabbing whatever struck their fancy from its endless shelves.

They seemed not to care that they were risking their lives. Just around the corner from the store, snipers opened fire at anyone who approached the nearby Donetsk airport. But as soon as the looters made it alive to the free consumer paradise, in a frenzy of greed or survival or both, they loaded up mountains of goods on their carts.

On the floor of the wine department, drunken Valeriy moaned that his wife expected him to pick her up from work, but he wanted to stay and live in the free-alcohol heaven; he insisted journalists not photograph his “being drunk as a pig.”

Outside the shopping center, two more drunk looters described the violent scenes of shootings earlier this week between Ukrainian National Guard forces and rebels; on Thursday the two men helped wounded local civilians to reach the hospital. The entire neighborhood was “terrorized” by stories about female snipers from the Baltic countries shooting men in the lower parts of their bodies. All that made the looting seem all right.

Unlike, Valeriy, Dmitry Yagudin realized that this could be his last chance to provide so plentifully for the six unemployed members of his family. He planned his looting carefully, eyeing the space available on his cart. He ignored bottles of expensive whiskey, blankets and hair dryers. “In wartime, one needs more serious things,” he explained, loading up blenders and juice makers. He passed right by the technology counters. “No, computers are not for me,” he said. “I am not an insane looter. If not for Ukrainian helicopters and snipers in my neighborhood, I would never do this.” Then he pushed his loot outside and up the street towards his house.

Like a big wobbling shopping cart, the entire Donetsk region, it seemed, was slowly being pushed toward a very uncertain future where the fear of death, kidnapping, economic crises, disillusionment, unemployment and the sundry unknowable horrors of civil war all mingled.

The leader of the separatist resistance, the self-proclaimed prime minister of the self -proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic, Alexander Borodai, blamed Kiev for all the republic’s troubles.

"Ukrainian authorities do everything to create a hopeless humanitarian catastrophe in eastern cities; a week ago they stopped paying salaries to state employees in the region,” Borodai complained in an interview on the square in front of his headquarters, standing by his Infiniti loaded with gunmen, rocket propelled grenades and a machine gun in the trunk.

Alexander Borodai - self-proclaimed "Prime Minister" of the pro-Russian separatists' self-declared "People's Republic of Donetsk"

The problems seemed to grow on the rebellious government faster it could handle them—on Thursday, Borodai claimed his people collected six more dead comrades outside the airport. Looting at the Metro store was another headache among many, he said.

The prime minister of the self-proclaimed government also admitted it was still “a pending challenge” to unite warlords, make them responsible and obey the command of the republic’s government. Battles with Ukrainian military in Luhansk, the region on the border with Russia, and Slovyansk, the epicenter of the fighting, were not the responsibility of the separatist leaders in Donetsk, he said.

Pro Russian rebels in crisis after Donetsk 'coup

Then, more bad news arrived from the Luhansk region: on Thursday night, four observers from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) reportedly were detained in Severodonetsk, 100 kilometers away. The team consists of four international members, as well as one Ukrainian language assistant. They were travelling in two vehicles. Another group of OSCE observers disappeared in Eastern Ukraine on the evening of May 26.

The risks did not stop the OSCE special monitoring mission from enlarging its presence in Ukraine, adding 23 people to the current team of 248.

As unrest grows in Ukraine, even Prime Minister Borodai’s 11th-floor headquarters splintered into bitter feuds. Sewage pipes burst on the 7th floor of the building, distributing a strong, rotten smell that seemed to match the mood. The commandant of the floor, Regina, a woman in a red blouse with sharp angry features, stormed into the Donetsk People’s Republic press center yelling and demanding her arm-chairs back—she believed that somebody from the self-proclaimed administration stole the two armchairs from her own office.

Quiet and upset, the press secretary, called Klaudiya, said that the republic “was on the verge of its own revolution—I hope we have prevented it.”

East Ukraine operation will continue until situation backs to normal

Interfax Ukraine 30 May 2014
Ukraine's defence minister says east Ukraine operation will continue until situation backs to normal

Ukraine's acting Defense Minister Mykhailo Koval has announced that the military operation in the east of the country will continue until the situation in the region is brought back to normal entirely.

"Our armed forces have completed their assigned missions and completely cleared the southern and western parts of the Donetsk region and the northern part of the Lugansk region from the separatists," Mykhailo Koval told reporters.

Ukrainian soldiers patrol on a checkpoint outside Slovyansk, Ukraine, Thursday, May 29,

A pro-Russian armed man runs past a burning house after it was set on fire by a mortar shell, on the outskirts of the town of Lysychansk, Ukraine

Pro-Russian militia members guard next to an APC and anti-aircraft gun May 29 in Donetsk
Ukraine's defence chief said his soldiers intended to push ahead with their so-called "anti-terrorist operation" despite demands by Moscow for all military activities to come to an immediate halt.

"We will continue working until this region starts working and leading a normal life," said Koval.

Ukraine's President-elect Petro Poroshenko also vowed to punish those who used a sophisticated surface-to-air missile to shoot the MI-8 helicopter out of the Lugansk sky.

"We have to do everything we can to ensure no more Ukrainians die at the hands of terrorists and bandits. These criminal acts by the enemies of the Ukrainian people will not go unpunished," Mr Poroshenko told Ukrainian news agencies.

He has since reached out to Putin and promised to hold his first talks with the Russian leader when they both attend D-Day commemorations in Normandy on June 6.

But Mr Putin has yet to confirm the meeting. Late on Thursday, Washington again called on Moscow to take a more constructive approach.

US Secretary of State John Kerry said he was encouraged by signs that Russia was pulling its troops back from Ukraine's eastern border.

But he said the appearance of Chechens in Donetsk and Lugansk was a dangerous new development that Putin should quickly address.

"There are still danger signs there that we hope will change," the top US diplomat told PBS television.

"There is evidence of Russians crossing over, trained personnel from Chechnya trained in Russia who've come across to stir things up, to engage in fighting," he said.

"We hope the Russians would actually engage more proactively in efforts to now try to de-escalate, take advantage of the election, build a road forward where Ukraine becomes a bridge between the West and East."

Chechnya's strongman leader Ramzan Kadyrov has denied sending his fighters into Ukraine.

But he also added that he could not account for the actions of all Chechens while the Kremlin has steered clear of the topic to this point.


Vice News 30 May 2014
Ice Cream, Corpses, and the Big Bear: Repatriating Dead Russians From Ukraine

By Harriet Salem

“The factory is closed! No one is here,” shouted a large, peroxide-blond in military fatigues, to anyone who approaches the firmly closed metal gate.

Sheets of rain cascaded down, but the crashing storm did not manage to clear the stench of death from the afternoon air.

Inside the rebel-commandeered ice cream refrigeration complex in Donetsk, behind a stack of wooden crates, young men and medics in green scrubs were at work preparing disfigured corpses for their final journey home. Some had to be pieced back together.

The gruesome task took several hours to complete.

Against a garish backdrop of brightly-colored vans and cartoon ads, the workers neatly stacked their precious cargo onto the back of a truck. A last journey will be made in this makeshift ambulance put together by the rebels, hastily whitewashed and painted over with a red cross and “200”— Soviet-era military code for their dead.

Each casket is marked with the red, black, and blue flag of the DPR — Donetsk People’s Republic. But the 30 men stretched out in these coffins are not from the fledgling rebel-state they laid down their lives for; they travelled here from Russia.

Most are believed to have been killed in the fierce battle between rebels and Ukrainian military for control of Donetsk airport after a Kamaz military truck transporting the wounded was hit by sniper fire, scattering body parts on the highway.

These deaths, and the repatriation of the bodies back to their motherland across Ukraine’s eastern border, mark a significant turning point in the spreading crisis that has gripped the country.

Despite Moscow’s persistent rejection of Russian men fighting in Ukraine’s east, it is now undeniable they are here.

Paperwork shown to VICE News confirmed that at least some of the dead being transported across the border were, as claimed by the rebels, Russians.

Dozens of pro-Russia militia members were reported dead after clashes with the Ukrainian military at Donetsk airport on May 26.

In March, Crimea was annexed by Moscow after a Putin-backed putsch overseen by the so-called “green men” — Russian Spetsnaz (special forces) operating without insignia.

But the swift and efficient departure of the southern peninsula from Ukraine to Russia could not stand in starker contrast to events in the east, which, while already bloody and protracted, are still far from resolved.

Instead of direct military support, the Kremlin’s solution to Ukraine’s eastern crisis has been a porous border: a blind eye to the movements of fighters and rebel leaders in the shadows of its territory, and a safe passage for the flow of illegal arms to its eastern neighbors.

The resulting free-for-all has encouraged paramilitary groups, some likely backed by warlords and oligarchs, to flood into the region.

Sayid, a Chechen fighter being treated at the Donetsk trauma unit for a gunshot wound in his ankle, told VICE News how he had travelled to Rostov in Russia for construction work. Once there, he was offered the opportunity to fight in Ukraine and headed with his unit for the border.

Aslan, a nervous gunman in a black tracksuit who patrols the ice cream factory, told VICE News a similar story. The 33-year-old Ossetian says that his group traveled to Donetsk to provide humanitarian aid, but then decided to join the fight.

Others from the Caucasus and other post-Soviet states are also thought to be among the swirling mix of paramilitaries descending on the region.

“The more the Ukrainian army attack us, the more fighters we have,” says Varan, Head of Security for the DPR.

Varan, whose name means “monitor lizard” in Russian, is a Chechen, but claimed that men are coming from all around the region. “All the neighboring countries have offered to send fighters,” he tells VICE News. “They come legally into the country in civilian clothes, and then form units once they arrive,” he adds.

Russian "Vostok" volunteers battalion suffered great loses on May 26 and 27, during battle for Donetsk airport.

Some may well be volunteers fighting for a patriotic belief in “Novorossiya.” The expansionist concept, which echoes from the Soviet Union and even Russian Empire past, also resonates with the contemporary neo-nationalist groups that emerged at the beginning of Putin’s second term in the early 2000s.

Yet while some may be fighting for the idea, others are likely paid mercenaries, or bandits looking for their slice of power and money when the spoils of revolution are divvied up.

An overturned Kamaz next to administrative buildings in Donetsk city center

Guarding his wounded comrades outside the hospital, 30-year-old Chechen fighter Magomed said he came to Donetsk for “personal interests” and would “like to be a boss.”

There are plenty of opportunities here for the aspiring rebel fighter. Yesterday, in a seeming coup, the infamous Vostok Battalion cleared out the men of the self-styled people’s leader Pavel Gubarev from the city’s occupied administration building.

A Pro-Russian militia member from "Vostok batallion" guards next to an APC and anti-aircraft gun, outside the administrational building in Donetsk

The heavily armed Vostok Battalion, whose name is a hat tip to a defunct Russian special military unit, said they were just dealing with looters. But it is suspected that the operation was in fact a takeover that concludes, at least temporarily, a simmering power struggle between competing rebel factions.

Locals are still hoping Putin will give a little more support than bandits and humanitarian aid — the latter was pledged yesterday by the Russian president — but the pleas for military reinforcements, or at least peacekeeping troops, have gone unanswered.

Indeed, as the truck lumbered away from the ice cream factory with its cargo of corpses, the distance between the powers in Moscow and the rebel-run Donetsk could not be clearer.

On the road to the border with Russia, a sign featuring a Soviet solider boldly proclaims: “Heroic actions are immortal.” But the bodies in the back of the truck are not Russia’s heroes; they are its dirty secret.

For these dead men there was no safe passage, no final salute, and no solemn celebration of a soldier’s final return home.

Slava, the truck’s stocky driver, was visibly agitated. He was asked only that morning “by people I couldn’t say no to” to undertake the dangerous journey through contested land, and said he has no idea what will happen on the other side of the border, other than “people will come to meet [him]."

Local militia groups don’t want to travel with their fallen comrades either; they are too afraid their presence will provoke an attack. Instead, they send an envoy of strangers to accompany the load: two plainclothes police officers, and one car of journalists as a human shield.

The Russian press, which enjoy exclusive access to the rebels’ world thanks to the influence of the Kremlin, was notably absent. The snub is a telling sign of Moscow’s position.

The rebels’ nervousness about the journey is not misplaced; the road to the border is treacherous for them. Rolling fields and dilapidated villages normally make for a scenic countryside drive, but now the litter of burned-out barricades and abandoned checkpoints testify to the encroaching war, and stretches of forest are ideal territory for snipers.

At the border, a tense search of the truck and its cargo was interrupted by the shouts and gunfire of an unannounced unit of Ukrainian soldiers. Finally, it was permitted to trundle across the border, to the relief of all involved.

The Big Dipper, known in Russia as the Big Bear, twinkled overhead. The truck headed towards whatever waits on the other side, the noise of its engine replaced by the buzz of mesquites. Border guards peered into the clear night, guns slung over shoulders.

Even amid the chaos of war, one thing is now clear to everyone: Russia is here, but she doesn’t want to claim her men.

No, Thomas Friedman, Putin Didn't 'Blink' On Ukraine

Forbes: 30 May 2014

Paul Roderick Gregory

Forbes Columnist

No, Thomas Friedman, Putin Didn't 'Blink' On Ukraine

Putin addresses the Petersburg business summit on May 23.

In his recent column titled “Putin Blinked,” New York Times Columnist Thomas Friedman compares Nikita Khrushchev’s “blink” when faced with U.S. warships off of Cuba in 1962 to Vladimir Putin’s “blink” when confronted with U.S. sanctions and an interrelated world economy. Friedman concedes the asymmetry of the two events: the first avoided a nuclear holocaust; the second was, in his words, “the first case of post Cold War brinkmanship.” But in each case, there was a face-off between the West and Russia, and in both cases Russia backed off.

Here is Friedman’s account of the Putin blink written five days after the fact (italics are mine):

“The first flutter was pulling back his troops from Ukraine’s border and letting the election proceed. Interestingly, he chose to blink this out most directly at last week’s St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, Russia’s annual conference to attract global investors. ‘We want peace and calm in Ukraine,’ Mr. Putin told the business executives. ‘We are interested that on our western borders we have peace and calm in Ukraine. … We will work with the newly elected structure.’”

Friedman should check his facts.

First, Putin did not “let the election proceed,” as Friedman claims. His separatist proxies openly shut down the election in the two areas of east Ukraine they controlled – Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. His Little Green Men failed to gain influence in other regions of Ukraine, despite their efforts to destabilize Kharkiv, Odessa, and Dnepropetrovsk. The separatists had no way of holding back the record turnout of enthusiastic voters on Sunday, May 25.

In sum, Putin’s proxies (and Friedman’s own paper now confirms a heavy Russian presence among them) did not let the election proceed in the areas they controlled, and Putin had no influence, one way or the other, in the rest of Ukraine.

Second, Friedman failed to read Putin’s comments at the Petersburg business conference on the Ukrainian election in full. They are the opposite of an endorsement. Instead, Putin argued that there was no need for an election because Viktor Yanukovich was still president, that a referendum and constitutional change must precede any election. (See my Poroshenko Elected Ukraine President; Putin Dodges Promise To ‘Respect’ Results).

Putin also declared that he will work with the newly elected “structure” (not president). Although on the day after his election, Poroshenko affirmed his desire to meet Russian leaders, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov still refers to Poroshenko as a “Kiev representative” rather than as the president-elect of all of Ukraine, according to a Globe and Mail report. Ukraine has placed as a precondition for talks that Russia formally recognize Poroshenko as Ukraine’s legitimate president. I suspect that getting Putin to formally recognize the new Ukrainian president will be akin to pulling teeth.

Third, Putin has indeed promised on a number of occasions, the latest being May 19, to withdraw troops from the border. But NATO reported that, as of May 28, much of the previously deployed Russian force remains in the vicinity of the border, despite some withdrawals.In fact, the Russian newspaper,Moskovsky Komsomolets, reports today that Russia has decided to leave its troops on the border “in light of the tragic events in Donetsk,” By this, they mean the repelled attack on the airport by Russian mercenaries. In other words, Russia cannot withdraw its troops because of the increased violence that it itself is causing! Talk about chutzpah.

Friedman fails to mention the increase in violence in east Ukraine following the election, despite Putin’s avowed desire “for peace and calm.” This violence has been promoted by the influx of truckloads of armed “volunteers” from Russia and ominously from Chechnya, which Ukrainian borders guards are desperately trying to halt. (See the Ukrainian interior ministry complaint to Russia).

Paramilitaries seize Donetsk rebels’ HQ

The Financial Times: 29 May 2014

Paramilitaries seize Donetsk rebels’ HQ

By Courtney Weaver in Donetsk and Roman Olearchyk in Kiev

Donetsk "infighting" among insurgents. Vostok battalion members attacked Donetsk RSA & arrested their "colleagues" 

Scores of heavily armed paramilitaries stormed the Donetsk headquarters of Ukraine’s pro-Russia separatists on Thursday, kicking out rebel leaders and announcing a new order in the self-declared Donetsk People’s Republic.

Armed with rocket-propelled grenades and Kalashnikov rifles, the camouflage-dressed commandos seized the building around midday, forcefully evicting the dozens of separatists who have been working and living inside the building for several weeks.

The takeover signals a change of power within the separatist movement after weeks of infighting between its various political and military leaders.

The move appears to be an attempt by separatists with closer ties to Moscow to assert control over an increasingly unruly rebellion. It was welcomed by Alexander Borodai, the republic’s new self-appointed prime minister and former Russian security consultant. He was also active in Crimea immediately before Russia’s annexation of the peninsula. Pro-Moscow separatists in eastern Ukraine have escalated the political turmoil that threatens to tear the country apart

The men, who identified themselves as members of the Vostok Battalion, a pro-Russia militia group, began to dismantle the rebels’ barricades, including the anti-EU and anti-western posters that had covered them. By mid-afternoon they were leading western journalists on tours of the building, gleefully kicking down locked doors, showing off the previous leaders’ loot and letting reporters freely rustle through the republic’s documents.

This is the state of most of the offices in Donetsk Administration building

The commandos insisted they were also separatists, who despised the Kiev “junta” and wanted to see eastern Ukraine either staying independent or becoming part of Russia. While most of the men said they were from the Donetsk region, some appeared to be speaking Ossetian, implying that they were from the Russian north Caucasus or South Ossetia, the breakaway Georgian republic.

The Vostok Battalion is one of several pro-Russian paramilitaries that have been taking part in the fighting in east Ukraine. Formed in early May, it is run by Alexander Khodаkovsky, the head of the Donetsk People’s Republic’s security service.

Mr Khodakovsky has been working under the leadership of a Russian citizen, Igor Grishkin, who goes by the pseudonym Strelkov and is running the separatists’ military operation in Slavyansk. The Kiev government says Mr Grishkin is a Russian military intelligence officer.

The abrupt change in leadership left many of the previous pro-Russia separatist leaders confused.

Vostok Battalion has besieged the DPR HQ

Sergei Babryshnykov, a lawmaker serving in the self-declared republic’s legislature, said the takeover appeared to be an internal coup but warned that it could be an attempt to sabotage the republic. “I can’t say myself who this operation is against, or what it is for. Many members of the republic are disturbed by this.”

However, the takeover could also be an attempt to transform the Donetsk People’s Republic from a haphazard movement into a sleek military operation, better prepared to defend itself against Kiev.

The violence in eastern Ukraine appears to be intensifying. A Ukrainian helicopter was shot down by separatists in Slavyansk on Thursday, killing 14 military personnel.

Members of the Vostok Battalion depicted the takeover as an emergency measure after a sharp rise in separatist looting and crime, as well as disorder within the leadership.

Over the past few weeks the rebels’ headquarters had grown to look, and smell, more like a rubbish dump, with discarded food and beer bottles littering the halls and an unsightly barricade outside built with tyres, timber and scrap metal and adorned by barbed wire.

And there go the barricades of the Donetsk People's Republic...

“We had such a beautiful city . . .  what the hell is this?” said one armed member of the Vostok Battalion, as bulldozers began dismantling the barricades beside him.

Vostok members said some of the separatists had looted an entire hypermarket during a Ukrainian military air strike this week, the spoils of which – coffee, hot dogs, Snickers, cigarettes – were scattered liberally throughout the building.

“The people who were representing our republic were not respectable,” Adik, another member of the battalion, said. He suggested that while some of the previous leadership would be allowed to stay within the movement, many would not.

National Guard says 12 Ukrainian security officers killed in helicopter shot down near Sloviansk

Interfax Ukraine: 29 May 2014

National Guard says 12 Ukrainian security officers killed in helicopter shot down near Sloviansk

Militants have shot down an Mi-8 helicopter of the National Guard of Ukraine near the town of Sloviansk, and as a result, 12 Ukrainian security officers were killed, the Web site of the National Guard has reported.

"On May 29, at about 1230 near the town of Sloviansk in Donetsk region, the terrorists shot down an Mi-8 helicopter of the National Guard of Ukraine, when the latter unloaded food for the fourth roadblock. As a result, 12 servicemen were killed, six servicemen of the National Guard of Ukraine, including the helicopter's crew, and six representatives of Berkut special task force. One serviceman of the National Guard is alive, but in a serious condition," the report said.

The National Guard also confirmed that among those killed was General Major Serhiy Kulchytsky, who led the combat training department of the National Guard.

The National Guard of Ukraine has said that a group of gunmen who brought down a Ukrainian Mi-8 helicopter outside Sloviansk, Donetsk region, has been eliminated during the anti-terrorist operation.

"In response to the actions by terrorists, the forces of the anti-terrorist operation carried out artillery bombardment and air strike of the territory, from where the fire was coming. As the result, a group of criminals involved in the shooting, was destroyed," the National Guard said in a statement.

Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan set up new alliance

The Associated press: 29 May 2014

Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan set up new alliance

The Soviet thing wont die...

The leaders of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan on Thursday created an economic union that intends to boost cooperation between the ex-Soviet neighbors, a pact which was at the source of the crisis in Ukraine.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said the Eurasian Economic Union — which Moscow had pushed Ukraine to join, helping spark the worst crisis in relations between Russia and the West since the Cold War — takes the countries' cooperation to a "new level" while respecting their sovereignty.

The Eurasian Union it's an ambitious dream, designed not only as an economic alternative to the European Union but also as a philosophical mission to make Russia the geopolitical center for its neighbors

"We are creating a powerful and attractive center of economic development, a major regional market bringing together over 170 million people," Putin said during talks in Kazakhstan's capital, Astana. He added that the pact would allow the countries to exploit their economic potential and strengthen their positions in global markets.

With a combined annual economic output of $2.2 trillion a year, the alliance's economic size would be close to that of Britain and well below that of the U.S.'s $17 trillion.

The union is the development of the existing Customs Union including the same nations. In addition to free trade, it coordinates the members' financial systems and regulates industrial and agricultural policies along with their labor markets and transport systems. The deal stops short of introducing a single currency and delays the creation of a common energy market.
The signing followed years of tense negotiations, and many differences have remained.

New Union's logo

Moscow will host the top executive body of the new alliance. Its high court will be based in Belarus, and the top financial regulator will be located in Kazakhstan.

Belarus' authoritarian President Alexander Lukashenko, who has depended on cheap Russian energy and other subsidies to keep his nation's Soviet-style economy afloat, said before the signing he wasn't fully happy with the deal, but hailed it reflected a mutually acceptable compromise.

Kazakhstan, led by autocratic President Nursultan Nazarbayev, is the second largest country by territory and economy among the ex-Soviet nations. Nazarbayev has maneuvered between Russia and the West during more than two decades in power. But Russia has little leverage over Kazakhstan, whose energy riches and booming economy make it an equal partner.

Nazarbayev said the new pact is based on consensus and well-balanced. He voiced hope that the new alliance "will become a powerful incentive for modernizing our economies and helping making them global leaders."

Armenian President Serge Sarkisian said his nation will be ready to join the union as early as next month after completing final preparations. Kyrgyzstan said it hopes to join the Customs Union, the precursor to the new alliance, before the year's end.

Russia tried to have Ukraine join the integration project and spike an association agreement with the European Union. But Ukraine's pro-Russia president, who spurned the deal with the EU in favor of closer ties with Moscow, was chased from power in February following months of protests. Russia then annexed Ukraine's Black Sea peninsula of Crimea, and a pro-Russia mutiny has engulfed eastern Ukraine, where rebels have seized government buildings and fought government troops.

The United States and the EU have responded to the Russian annexation of Crimea by slashing travel bans and asset freezes on members of Putin's entourage, and threatened to introduce further sanctions if Russia further tries to destabilize Ukraine.

Petro Poroshenko, a billionaire candy magnate who won Ukraine's presidential election on Sunday, vowed to integrate more closely into Europe. Ukraine's foreign minister told journalists Thursday that the country hopes to meet with EU officials before June 27 to determine when Ukraine would be able to sign an association agreement with the 28-member bloc.

In Astana, Lukashenko, known for his blunt statements, said that "sooner or later the Ukrainian leadership will understand where the nation's happiness lies."

Moscow's annexation of Crimea, which it explained by the need to protect ethnic Russians, has spooked many of its neighbors, including Kazakhstan, which has a significant Russian minority.

The Kremlin has sought to assuage such fears, and Lukashenko used Russia's desire to sign the pact to bargain for some last-minute economic advantages. Russia has agreed to allow Belarus to keep a greater share of revenues from selling oil products made from Russian crude, a deal that would add $1.5 billion to Belarusian state coffers this year.

Reuters: 29 May 2014
Ukraine's empty seat at table darkens party for Putin's new ex-Soviet bloc

By Raushan Nurshayeva and Alexei Anishchuk

ASTANA, May 29, 2014

Russian President Vladimir Putin welcomed Kazakhstan and Belarus on Thursday into a new Eurasian Economic Union built to rival the United States, EU and China - but the absence of Ukraine undermined his dream of restoring Soviet glory days.

Although Putin denies he is trying to rebuild the USSR, he makes no secret that his dream is to reverse the consequences of its breakup by drawing former Soviet states closer together. The signing ceremony, held in Kazakhstan's new oil-funded boomtown capital Astana, was his biggest step yet in realising that goal.

But events since February - when a pro-Russian leader was toppled in Ukraine, Putin responded by seizing Ukraine's Crimea peninsula and the West imposed sanctions - have cast a pall over the new union's birth.

The Eurasian Economic Union that has taken shape after years of planning is a shadow of the economic powerhouse Putin once dreamed of, snubbed by most former Soviet states and dominated by a Russian economy that is itself sliding into recession.

Still, the new union has a market of 170 million people, a combined annual GDP of $2.7 trillion and vast energy riches, and it can be held up by Putin to show Western sanctions imposed over the annexation of Crimea will not isolate Russia.

The treaty deepens ties forged when the three countries took the initial step of creating a customs union in 2010. It guarantees the free transit of goods, services, capital and workforces and coordinates policy for major economic sectors.

"Our meeting today of course has a special and, without exaggeration, an epoch-making significance," Putin said of the treaty, signed to loud applause from rows of seated officials.

"This document brings our countries to a new stage of integration while fully preserving the states' sovereignty."

His reference to sovereignty was telling because Kazakhstan fought hard during negotiations to ensure it did not give up any of the independence it won as the Soviet Union collapsed, scotching Russian hopes of creating a political union.

Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev, seated at a long white desk at which he, Putin and Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko signed the treaty, said the union would be an "economic bridge between the East and the West".

Lukashenko darkened the party's mood by mentioning the most important of the guests that stayed away.

"We lost someone, Ukraine ... for Ukraine, the burden was too heavy," the Belarus leader said. "Sooner or later the Ukrainian authorities will know where happiness is."

PUTIN'S DREAM

The Eurasian Economic Union will formally come into force on Jan. 1 once approved by the countries' parliaments, a formality for three presidents that have no serious internal opposition.

The union - an idea first raised by Nazarbayev in 1994 but widely ignored at the time - brings to life Putin's dream of uniting like-minded countries, capitalising on the nostalgia of many Russians for the order and relative economic and political stability of the communist Soviet empire that collapsed in 1991.

Putin noted that Kazakhstan and Russia accounted for one-fifth of the world's natural gasreserves and 15 percent of oil reserves - although Belarus's struggling economy looks like a burden for Astana and Moscow.

The new union reinforces Putin's drive to show Russia will not be isolated by sanctions, a message he sent by reaching a $400-billion gas supply deal with China last week.

But any hopes of rebuilding a large part of the Soviet Union have been thwarted by Ukraine, with some 45 million people, by far the most populous ex-Soviet state after Russia itself.

That blow, in the words of ex-Kremlin spin doctor Gleb Pavlovsky, makes Putin's original dream "impossible" to fulfil.

Armenia and Kyrgyzstan, both tiny and poor, are considering joining. But other ex-Soviet republics, including big energy producers Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan, have steered clear.

Shortly before the treaty was signed, Russia's biggest bank reported an 18 percent decline in profits in the first quarter and more than doubled its provision for bad loans, with sanctions and instability caused by the Ukraine crisis partly to blame.

The creation of the new alliance also involves costs for Russia. Deputy Finance Minister Sergei Shatalov told Reuters in March that Belarus and Kazakhstan received about $6 billion annually from Russia in direct and indirect support, and said that could increase by $30 billion if all trade restrictions were lifted in 2015 after the union is created.

Mnogo je ovdje svirača u Putinovom orkestru

Portal Analitika: 29 May 2014
Direktorka Centra za evroatlanske studije Jelena Milić:

Mnogo je ovdje svirača u Putinovom orkestru

By Tamara NIKČEVIĆ

Ne govorim o formalnoj invaziji; govorim o investiranju ruskog kapitala u crnogorske političke krugove i medije koji promovišu Putinovu politiku. Riječ je o sviračima u takozvanom Putinovom orkestru: opozicionim stranakama koje se oštro protive ulasku Crne Gore u NATO; SPC-u i njenom mitropolitu; pojedinim nevladinim organizacijama; medijima… Zanimljivo, najžešću i najperfidniju anti-NATO kampanju danas vode upravo oni mediji koji su se krajem devedesetih zalagali za nezavisnost Crne Gore i koji, da paradoks bude veći, uživaju najveću i finansijsku i svaku drugu podršku Zapada.

Politika “prava na istorijsko nasljeđe” i “zabrinutosti za stanje ljudskih prava” u drugim državama, koju poslednjih mjeseci demonstrira predsjednik Rusije, Vladimir Putin, mogao bi ozbiljno da destabilizuje cio region Zapadnog Balkana - smatra direktorka beogradskog Centra za evroatlanske studije Jelena Milić. Po njenom sudu, sve češći međuetnički sukobi u Makedoniji, zaostajanje Srbije i Kosova u primjeni Briselskog sporazuma, odbijanje Srba sa Sjevera Kosova da učestvuju na centralnim kosovskim izborima, situacija u Bosni i Hercegovini i najave referenduma o statusu Republike Srpske - indirektna su posljedica višemjesečne krize u Ukrajini koju, po ocjeni Milić, osim Crne Gore, ni jedna od postjugoslovenskih država nije uspjela da iskoristi na pravi način.

Jelena Milić: Srbija je krizu u Ukrajini uglavnom koristila kao pokušaj da napravi analogiju između ruske aneksije Krima i pitanja statusa Kosova. Naravno, riječ je o besprizornoj manipulaciji, budući da je država Srbija na Kosovu godinama sprovodila aparthjed, tokom koga su nad albanskim stanovništvom počinjeni užasni zločini. Uostalom, zbog toga je gotovo cijelom državnom, vojnom i političkom vrhu Srbije iz devedesetih suđeno u Hagu. Naravno, ništa od navedenog nije se događalo na Krimu“ – kaže za Portal Analitika Jelena Milić.

- Oni koji se danas pozivaju na međunarodno pravo, morali bi se, najzad, sjetiti presude koju je, odgovarajući na tužbu tadašnjeg šefa srpske diplomatije Vuka Jeremića, izrekao Međunarodni sud pravde u Hagu: Kosovo je slučaj sui generis. Opravdavajući aneksiju Krima, Srbija, pored teze o ugroženosti ruskog jezika u Ukrajini – koju, uzgred, Rusija nikada nije stavila na dnevni red OEBS-a, Savjeta Evrope ili sličnih institucija – dosljedno citira i ostale “argumente” Vladimira Putina, ističe Milić.

ANALITIKA: Koje argumente?

MILIĆ: Da je Krim rusko “istorijsko nasljeđe”. Ali, šta to znači? Da Turska imperija ili Austruogarska danas mogu da traže ono što im je nekada pripadalo? Oprostite, u XXI veku “istorijske nepravde” se ne ispravljaju promjenom granica, nego unapređenjem stanja kolektivnih prava i pojačanom međudržavnom strukturom.

ANALITIKA: Šta je sa Crnom Gorom?

MILIĆ: Crna Gora je ukrajinsku krizu iskoristila kako bi pokušala da dobije pozivnicu za septembarski samit NATO alijanse u Velsu, što je dobro.

ANALITIKA: Zašto je dobro?

MILIĆ: Zato što bi članstvo u NATO paktu ne samo zauvijek osujetilo pokušaje određenih ruskih, srpskih i unutracrnogorskih krugova da ponište crnogorsku državnu nezavisnost, nego bi pojačao okvir za nastavak evropskih integracija i značajno doprinijelo stabilizaciji regiona. Eventualna eskalacija krize u Bosni i Hercegovini, recimo, imala bi kudikamo drugačiji tok ako bi ta bivša jugoslovenska republika sjutra bila okružena dvijema članicama NATO-pakta: Hrvatskom i Crnom Gorom…

Kada govorim o snagama u Srbiji zinteresovanim za ukidanje crnogorske države, mislim na one i dalje jake političke i društvene krugove koji se nijesu odrekli Crne Gore i sjevera Kosova i koji i dalje sanjaju o tome da od Bosne i Hercegovine otmu Republiku Srpsku.

ANALITIKA: Na koje ruske krugove mislite?

MILIĆ: Na one koji šalju prijeteća pisma predsedniku Vlade Crne Gore... Često čujem: "zbog čega bi velikoj Rusiji smetao ulazak zemlje od 650 000 stanovnika u NATO?". Ali, nije riječ o veličini, ona je sporedna; riječ je o većoj, strateškoj igri. Naime, imajući u vidu činjenicu da NATO u mediteranskim morima odavno ima svoje baze, Rusija danas pokušava da po svaku cijenu na Mediteranu sebi obezbjedi remontnu luku; tim prije što bi uskoro mogla da izgubi ono što je do skoro imala u Siriji. U tom smislu, Moskva veoma računa na Crnu Goru, pa je crnogorsko “Ne” i najava priključenja zapadnoj vojnoj alijansi doslovno razjaruju. Najzad, ako govorimo o ruskoj politici prema Crnoj Gori, ne smijemo zaboraviti da je “treniranjem strogoće” nad malim državama Rusija svojoj javnosti uvek dokazivala koliko je u stvari jaka.

ANALITIKA: Ali, gdje je Rusija jaka? Samo na Balkanu.

MILIĆ: Tako je. Jer, pogledajte gdje je danas Rusija. Njena ekonomija je u sve težoj situaciji i, osim pomenutog “treniranja strogoće”, Putin naprosto nema mehanizme pomoću kojih bi svojim građanima skrenuo pažnju sa onoga što je svima jasno: da njegov bankarski sistem nije u skladu sa potrebama privrede; da je cio ruski budžet balansiran na osnovu cijene energenata na svetskom tržištu; da će u narednom periodu doći do promjene tih cijena, tako da Moskva više neće moći da na isti način ucjenjuje Zapad…

Upravo je ta nemoć razlog zašto Vladimir Putin svoju javnost danas pokušava da impresionira agesivnom politikom u Ukrajini i na Balkanu.

ANALITIKA: Koliko ruska razjarenost o kojoj ste govorili može biti opasna po Crnu Goru?

MILIĆ: Može biti veoma opasna. Naravno, ne govorim o formalnoj invaziji; govorim o investiranju ruskog kapitala u crnogorske političke krugove i medije koji promovišu Putinovu politiku. Riječ je o sviračima u takozvanom Putinovom orkestru: opozicionim strankama koje se oštro protive ulasku Crne Gore u NATO; SPC-u i njenom mitropolitu; pojedinim nevladinim organizacijama; medijima… Zanimljivo, najžešću i najperfidniju anti-NATO kampanju danas vode upravo oni mediji koji su se krajem devedesetih zalagali za nezavisnost Crne Gore i koji, da paradoks bude veći, uživaju najveću i finansijsku i svaku drugu podršku Zapada. Uzmite, recimo, podgoričke "Vijesti": pogledajte šta poslednjih godina pišu o NATO intervenciji na SRJ; obratite pažnju na njihove naslovne strane svakog 24. marta: od fotografija do analiza uzroka i posljedica te vojne akcije; šta pišu o Ukrajini, kako glorifikuju Vladimira Putina… Svako onaj ko na tako nešto ukaže, biva optužen da guši slobodu medija i rad civilnog društva. Nažalost, u takve zamke nerijetko upadaju i pojedini predstavnici EU.

ANALITIKA: Šta je u stvari Putinov orkestar? Aluzija na Crveni orkestar ili…

MILIĆ: Crveni orkestar je mreža sovjetskih agenata – doduše, obaveštajaca-antifašista – koji su tokom Drugog svetskog rata bili infiltrirani u Nemačkoj i drugim zemljama sa ciljem da se - u smislu rušenja Hitlerovog Trećeg Rajha - Moskvi i Staljinu dostavi što veći broj relevantnih infomacija. Dakle, u pravu ste: Putinov orkestar je aluzija na sovjetski Crveni orkestar.

E, sada, ko su srpski svirači u Putinovom orkestru? Pored pomahnitalog Milorada Dodika, to su Tomislav Nikolić, Socijalistička partija Srbije Ivice Dačića, poslanici različitih političkih partija od kojih mnogi više i ne kriju da zastupaju ruske interese, udruženja građana, srpski akademici, mediji, sveštenici Srpske pravoslavne crkve, Beogradski univerzitet…

Kao i u Crnoj Gori, zadatak Putinovog orchestra u Srbiji je obaranje podrške građana evropskim integracijama, što bi – i tu je kraj sličnostima, budući da se zvanična Podgorica kreće u suprotnom smeru - Aleksandra Vučića i Ivicu Dačića u jednom momentu navelo da kažu: dragi Njemci, žao nam je, doveli ste nas na vlast, ali mi više nismo u stanju da izdržavamo pritisak sopstvene javnosti; odričemo se EU, okrećemo se Rusiji.

ANALITIKA: Zašto pominjete premijera Aleksandra Vučića?

MILIĆ: Zato što je, recimo, prije dvije godine, dolaskom Vučića na vlast, u Srbiji započeo proces – putinizacije. Zar osnovne karakteristike takvog načina vladanja ne gledamo svakodnevno? Govorim o partijskoj kontroli sistema bezbjednosti…

ANALITIKA: Govorite o u najmanju ruku čudnoj odluci premijera Vučića da zadrži i mjesto šefa svih obavještajnih službi, što ne smije ni da se spomene ili…

MILIĆ: O tome, naravno; ali i o obesmišljavanju institucija i podjele vlasti; o centralizaciji vlasti i stvaranju kulta ličnosti; arbitrarnom odnosu prema tajkunima; klijentelističkom pravosuđu; smanjenju ljudskih prava prije svega LGBT populacije; tolerisanju i privilegovanom odnosu jedne vjerske zajednice u odnosu na ostale; reviziji i bliže i dalje prošlosti… Pored toga, bez obzira na to kako ga u ovom momentu vidjeli Njemci, Britanci ili Amerikanci, Vučić svojim ćutanjem zapravo ohrabruje Putinov orkestar.

ANALITIKA: Kako ga ohrabruje?

MILIĆ: Da li je djelovanje te neformalne grupe do sada naišlo na bilo kakvu reakciju Aleksandra Vučića, na osudu ili stav koji bi nas naveo na zaključak da premijer Srbije hoće ili da želi tome da se suprotstavi? Nije. Ni kada je riječ o Ukrajini, ni kada je riječ o Crnoj Gori.

ANALITIKA: Zašto o Crnoj Gori?

MILIĆ: Zašto?! Kako, recimo, čovjeku koji kontroliše gotovo sve medije u Srbiji jedino, eto, nekako uspijeva da “umakne” Politika koja svakodnevno objavljuje onakve izvještaje iz Podgorice?!... Najzad, Vučić čuti i o kriminalizaciji društva, o pojačanom uticaju crkve na društvena zbivanja i odlučuje da igra na sigurno: na međunarodnoj sceni, sebe je, misli, pozicionirao kao političara koji se bavi isključivo ekonomijom; sve ostalo je, navodno, ostavio drugima. Iako se zna da je upravo Vučić prva violina teze da Srbija može brzo u EU, istovremeno održavajući specijalne odnose sa Rusijom.

ANALITIKA: Ali, ta politika funkcioniše. Naime, za sada nema ozbiljnijih pritisaka da Srbija, recimo, podrži sankcije koje je EU uvela Rusiji.

MILIĆ: Za sada… Razlika između procesa evropskih integracija i onoga što radi Vladimir Putin je ta što Zapad insistira na tome da je put u EU izraz demokratske volje građana društava koja žele da postanu dio Evrope; za razliku, recimo, od Ukrajine, Kazahstana ili Azerbejdžana gdje, kada Putin nešto kaže, tako i bude. E, sada, mislim da EU veoma dobro vidi situaciju u Srbiji – govorim o putnizaciji – ali indirektno poručuje da nema zakonskog načina da Beograd privoli na to da se mijenja. Sa druge strane, Srbija, nažalost, nema strategiju spoljnopolitičkih odnosa; igra od danas do sjutra i na taj način preživljava. Za razliku, recimo, od Crne Gore koja je, odlukom da se pridruži sankcijama EU Rusiji pokazala stav. Milo Đukanović je jasno definisao strateški interes Crne Gore; rekao je gdje bi ona trebalo da bude i tako pitanje ulaska Crne Gore u NATO i EU postavio kao nešto što je bitnije čak i od njegove vlastite buduće političke i državne pozicije.

ANALITIKA: O čemu govorite?

MILIĆ: O tome da nijesam sigurna da će Đukanovićevu političku poziciju u Crnoj Gori učvrstiti njegovo insistiranje na evroatlanskim integracijama; naprotiv. Uprkos tome, uprkos pretnjama i pritiscima Moskve, Đukanović insistira na pozivnici za predstojeći NATO samit u Velsu. Eto, u tome je razlika između državnika i političara, između Đukanovića i Vučića.

I, kada već pominjem crnogorskog premijera, moram da kažem da mislim da je Đukanovićeva velika greška početno oduševljenje Alaksandrom Vučićem.

ANALITIKA: Zašto uvažavanje izborne volje građana Srbije doživljavate kao oduševljenje? Snažnom pomoći beogradskoj opoziciji i medijima koji su se – uz određene izuzetke - odmah nakon 5. oktobra doslovno ostrvili na nju, Crna Gora se krajem devdesetih, čini mi se, već spuštavala na to užemiješanja u političke prilike u Srbiji. I znamo kako je prošla. Sa druge strane, uprkos svemu, zar premijer Vučić nije jedini političar na čelu Srbije koji se – barem javno - u poslednje tri decenije nije uplitao u unutrašnje stvari Crne Gore?

MILIĆ: Možda ste u pravu: Đukanovićevo početno oduševljenje bi možda zaista trebalo tumačiti i kao reakciju na višegodišnju politiku Borisa Tadića koji je, i preko svog savjetnika Mlađana Đorđevića, ozbiljno uzimao učešća u upravljanju političkim prilikama u Podgorici. Taj uticaj – ne samo politički, nego i finansijski – bio je veoma vidljiv i u medijima.

Ali, vratimo se Srbiji: za razliku od Crne Gore, Beograd, kažem, cinculira od danas do sjutra; u svojoj političkoj kratkovidosti ne shvata da ovde nije riječ o ekonomskim sankcijama, već o simbličkom gestu kojim se od Beograda traži da pokaže istinsku privrženost principima EU.

ANALITIKA: Rekli ste da EU veoma dobro vidi putinizaciju Srbije…

MILIĆ: Zar zaista mislite da Zapad ne vidi da se, recimo, poplave u Srbiji danas koriste kako bi se susprendovala sva ljudska i građanska prava, kako bi se dodatno gušila sloboda medija, kako bi se nesrećom građana manipulisalo na krajnje besraman način? Oprostite, ali ne mogu da razumijem zašto ministri u Vučićevoj vladi dozvoljavaju da ih premijer onako javno ponižava. To “dosta”, “izađite napolje”, “da riječ nisam čuo”… Gdje to ima?! Pored toga, na osnovu čega predsjednik vlade Srbije unaprijed krivi predstavnike lokalne zajednice da će da kradu humanitarnu pomoć? Kako smije da viče na načelnika Generalštaba, ma ko taj čovjek inače bio?! Zar na ovaj način Vučić ne pokazuje prezir prema svim institucijama u Srbiji? Svu vlast je centralizovao, odlučuje o svemu. Uveo je trodnevni dan žalosti, tokom koje je čak građanima Srbije bilo ukinuto pravo da gledaju strane televizijske kanale...

ANALITIKA: Kako bi dodatno disciplinovao javnost, premijer Vučić koristi poplave na isti onaj brutalan način na koji je Slobodan Milošević koristio NATO intervenciju na SRJ.

MILIĆ: Tačno! S tim što NATO intervencija na SRJ nije nanijela ovoliku materijalnu štetu, niti je ugrozila ovoliko civila. Ali je ludilo isto, slažem se. U tom smislu, imate arbitrarne prozivke u medijima ko je kako i koliko pomoći donirao; histeriju po kojoj je svaka kritika upućena na račun ove vlasti nepatriotska, antidržavna i antiustavna; moralnu komisiju koja kontroliše kolika je čija empatija… Ko je, recimo, dezinformisao javnost o broju žrtava u poplavama? Ko je na naslovnim stranama objavljivao da u Obrenovcu “rijekom plove na hiljade leševa”? Pa, "Kurir" koji ne piše onako kako mu je kažem, nego onako kako mu naredi Aleksandar Vučić. Koji, kontrolom svih medija u Srbiji, zataškava ogroman dilentatizam i improvizaciju državnih struktura za koju je, naravno, odgovorna koalicija na vlasti… Dalje: ko u Srbiji ruši sajtove na kojima možete da pročitate kritiku na račun rada Vlade? Ko odlučuje o tome da li će djeca uopšte slaviti maturu ili će, kao im se preporučuje, novac uplatiti u fondove za ugrožene? Ko proziva žene koje rade u javnoj administraciji što, u danima poplava i žalosti, na posao dolaze u cipelama sa visokim potpeticama? Čekajte, šta je ovo?! Sjeverna Koreja?!

ANALITIKA: Gdje su opozicija, slobodni mediji?

MILIĆ: Pretvaranje Srbije u Sjevernu Koreju moguće je i zbog toga što su u Srbiji uništeni i opozicija i civilno društvo koje je u međuvremenu postalo “pružač usluga”; tehnokratizovana, produžena ruka države koja samo gleda kako će – finansijski i formalno - sebe umetnuti u process evropskih integracija. Uzgred, taj process je vulgarizovan i sveden na učešće i nadgledanje pregovora po poglavljima; na skrininge i kojekave banalnosti koje u drugi plan bacaju činjenicu da je suština evropeizacije društva stanje ljudskih prava, demokratskih institucija, kontrolnih mehanizama… Po mom sudu, to u Srbiji ne postoji. Zavladao je strah i ljudi se više ne usuđuju da bilo šta kažu. Umesto toga, javno se utrkuju ko će više da podiđe gospodaru Vučiću. Eto, to je putinizacija o kojoj govorim i zbog koje se sve više plašim da bi Srbija, kao i Ukrajina, uskoro mogla da stekne status failed state.

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