By Daniel Bilak
Russian President Vladimir Putin has every reason to be satisfied by the way how EU respond to his moves over Ukraine.
Europe’s leaders gather today in Brussels to debate among other things, possible new sanctions in respect of the recent escalation of Russian aggression in Ukraine. During their deliberations they should heed the sage words of English philosopher, Edmund Burke: “all that is necessary for evil to triumph, is for good men to do nothing.”
The prognosis for some action today on sanctions is not good. Unfortunately, the EU has repeatedly demonstrated a pathological aversion to sanctioning Russia for the chaos and mayhem it has conjured up in Ukraine. Italy was reported this week to be the main obstacle to tougher sanctions, an honour previously held by France (which insists that it still going ahead with the sale of the Mistral helicopter carrier to Russia, which will likely be deployed in the Black Sea), and Cyprus and Greece continue to stand by their traditional Orthodox ally and the billions stashed in Cypriot bank accounts held by wealthy Russians.
Most disappointing, however, was German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s statement following discussions with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Rio de Janeiro that Ukraine should start immediate bilateral negotiations with the terrorists rampaging through the Donbas.
Just who among the marauding, fragmented bands of 10,000 Chechen fighters and Russian mercenaries, Donbas criminals, drug addicts, and other marginals President Petro Poroshenko speak should with, the Chancellor didn’t say. Clearly financed and armed to the teeth by Russia with heavy weapons, such as artillery, grenade launchers and GRAD (Hail) multiple-rocket launchers, and supported by tanks and armoured personnel carriers from Russia, these fractious forces expend almost as much effort fighting amongst themselves as they do battling Ukraine’s army. How they will find time from shooting up the towns and cities they hold to meet to talk is anyone’s guess.
And what does President Poroshenko talk to them about? About living together in peace and harmony in the Donbas? About surrendering and going home? For this motley crew there is no way back: the Ukrainians among them will be tried as terrorists, and many Russian fighters who have tried to return to their homeland have been killed by Russian border guards; they now have no choice but to fight, or die.
Therefore, the calls for ‘both sides’ to put down their arms and negotiate are disingenuous and fatuous. Everyone knows that there is only one person with whom to negotiate on the ‘other side’ and that is Putin himself. This conflict could be over in a matter of days if the EU and the US persuaded him to cut off the flow of funds, tanks, weapons and mercenaries from Russia and to secure his side of the Ukrainian-Russian border.
Without a robust response from the West, Putin is not yet ready to deliver peace. His goal is still to keep Ukraine out of Europe and in his grip. His problem is that, buoyed by the support of a united country (which will probably be Putin’s lasting legacy in this conflict), including in the Donbas, Ukraine’s army has recently scored significant victories against the terrorists, liberating much of the territory in Dontesk and Lukhansk oblasts. Tactically, Putin now needs a cessation of hostilities to at least preserve the positions that the terrorists currently hold by persuading Europe to force Ukraine to halt its offensive.
To this end, Russia re-escalated the conflict in the past few days, staging what Ukrainian authorities say is a number of provocations to try to justify an outright incursion into Ukraine. Claiming to be a victim of Ukrainian aggression on Russian territory, Russia’s Foreign Affairs ministry blamed Ukraine for the explosion on Sunday of a mortar shell that killed a villager on its side of the border (responsibility for which Ukraine vehemently denies, claiming it to be a terrorist provocation); some Russian legislators immediately called for “targeted” bombing by Russia inside Ukraine. On cue, on Tuesday Russian planes reportedly violated Ukraine’s borders and bombed a building in Snizhne near the Donetsk-Russia cordon. On Monday, Ukraine claimed a Russian fighter jet or one of Russia’s new rockets shot down a Ukrainian air force plane from inside Russian territory (based on the fact that no side on Ukraine’s territory has weaponry that could reach that height).
Meanwhile, Russian tanks, artillery, and unidentified professional soldiers (reminiscent of Crimea’s ‘little green men’) on the weekend pored over the Ukrainian-Russian border, advancing three kilometres inside Ukraine. Menacingly, Russia has once again amassed what NATO estimates to be 12,000 troops on Ukraine’s border as potential “peacekeepers”.
Putin continues to use the notion of ‘plausible deniability’ to cast the conflict as an internal Ukrainian problem; Russian arms, organizational and human support are in Ukraine, but Russia somehow is not – there is no ‘proof’ of Russian involvement because we can’t officially identify any Russian soldiers. This charade is specifically directed at the Europeans, whom Putin assiduously tries to divide over the war in Ukraine.
EU countries therefore have the choice of calling a spade a spade in a unified way, as they did with respect to Crimea, or to play Putin’s game.
EU countries therefore have the choice of calling a spade a spade in a unified way, as they did with respect to Crimea, or to play Putin’s game.
Sadly, it seems some leading EU states are choosing the latter. With 300,000 and 120,000 workers in Germany and Italy respectively employed in businesses engaged in Russia, and with France bent on selling Russia military kit, the imposition of so-called ‘tier three’ sectoral sanctions seems very unlikely unless the EU leadership experiences an epiphany today. As the Economist elegantly pointed out in this week’s edition, the West has “connived in Mr. Putin’s pretence”, and the EU looks set to continue to do so.
The leaders that subscribe to this pretence are only fooling themselves. ‘Ukraine fatigue’ will only further open existing fissures in the unity of the EU - Great Britain, Sweden, Poland and the Baltic States, supported by the United States, have demanded more robust measures to contain Mr. Putin; they recognise the threat he poses to the values and security of the Euro-Atlantic alliance as a whole. They seem to understand that stopping Putin is not an altruistic act for Ukraine’s benefit. Sanctions are a necessary measure to contain Russia’s imperial expansionism, which will, sooner or later, affect EU countries - Finland, Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, and Poland, which (like Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova) were also part of the Russian and Soviet empires.
If the fragile minimalist consensus over sanctions ultimately humiliates and weakens the EU, maybe it’s better to drop the pretence of unity altogether. Perhaps the EU could today agree to proceed with a ‘two speed’ sanctions policy; European member states unwilling to take effective action against Russian aggression would give the green light to those countries that, along with the US, believe that Putin must be stopped now, to move ahead with more vigorous measures.
Europe’s vacillating position on sanctions is also a wake-up call to Ukraine. It is hugely ironic that as voters in some EU member states were overwhelmingly casting ballots supporting (generally pro-Russian) far-right parties advocating the union’s break-up, Ukrainians were still burying those who died on the Maidan, and continue to die in the Donbas, for the values of freedom and democracy that the EU itself claims to represent. Many Ukrainians now feel bitterly betrayed that Europe refuses to help them confront oppression and tyranny.
Kyiv, Ukrainians protest against Eu's inability to agree on sanctioning Putin's Russia.
But, many Ukrainians now subscribe to the saying, “that which doesn’t kill us makes us stronger.” Ukrainians now appreciate that to build and maintain a strong army and healthy society they will have to do it and pay for it by themselves. In this context, the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement is no longer just a trade deal – it has become a matter of national security. Ukraine must use the agreement to become ‘more European than the Europeans’; to create an open and competitive economy so attractive to German, French, British, American and Italian investors that hundreds of thousands of jobs in those countries will become vested and engaged in maintaining a prosperous Ukraine. This is now a foreign and domestic policy imperative for Ukraine’s leaders.
To achieve this objective, Ukraine must, once and for all, stamp out corruption and firmly establish the rule of law by lustrating its judges and reforming its governing institutions. Wartime is the ideal context in which to make unpopular hard decisions and choices, since the country has much to gain and leaders have very little to lose. So far, disappointingly, there has been more talk than action from Ukraine’s leaders on this issue.
The underlying message of this messy conflict for the leaders of Europe, Russia, America, and Ukraine alike is that Ukrainians are united today, as never before, in a sense of determination, purpose and historical destiny. But Ukrainians shouldn’t have to walk alone, fighting what appears to be the opening salvo of a civilisational clash between Russia and the West.
If Europe ignores the fervent resolve of the Ukrainian people to live in freedom and to prosper in a truly European country, the continent could be embroiled in conflict for years to come.
Daniel Bilak is an advisor to the Governor of Donetsk Oblast and managing partner of CMS Cameron McKenna in Ukraine.
No comments:
Post a Comment