by Ian Bateson
A pro-Russian gunman stands guard at a checkpoint with a Russian flag near Kharzisk, East of Donetsk, on November 16, 2014.
In a tweet on Nov. 17, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said that Ukraine wants peace but is prepared for “total war” with Russian-backed separatists, reiterating a statement he made to the German Bild newspaper on Nov. 15.
The statement comes during continued clashes between Ukrainian and Moscow's proxy forces in the industrial eastern Donbas oblasts of Donetsk and Luhansk.
Six Ukrainian soldiers were killed and nine wounded on Nov. 16 according to Security Council spokesperson Col. Andriy Lysenko, while the Donetsk City Council said that one civilian was killed and eight injured in Donetsk over the weekend.
Poroshenko’s statement appears intended to reassure the public during a period of uncertainty rather than to reflect the current state of preparedness of the Ukrainian military.
Fighting has seen Ukraine continue to lose ground in the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts since a Sept. 5 cease-fire among Ukrainian, separatists and Russian leaders in Minsk. Monitoring the cease-fire has proven difficult with the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe stating that their observers are obstructed in separatist-controlled areas and their observation drones jammed and shot at.
At least 4,132 civilians have been killed in the conflict as of Nov. 11 according to the United Nations while 1,052 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed as of Nov. 11, according to the Ukrainian Security Council.
Poroshenko has consistently stated that Ukraine believes only a peaceful solution to the conflict is possible, but that Ukraine is the only party committed to the Minsk peace agreements.
Despite this position Ukraine has been preparing for continuing hostilities. An order published on the presidential website over the weekend but originally agreed on by the Security Council on Nov. 4 foresees the creation of a rapid reaction paratrooper force within two weeks, and reorganizing how military and police bodies arm and manage checkpoints within one month.
Poroshenko was in the Slovakian capital over the weekend to drum up support from Ukraine’s western neighbors at a meeting of the Visegrad Group, which includes Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary. He also met with German President Joachim Gauck while in Bratislava.
The former East Bloc countries have been a key support group for Ukraine in the European Union. Russian pressure, however, has often curtailed the appetite of many EU countries to support Ukraine with tougher sanctions against Russia. The re-sale of Russia natural gas by several former East Bloc countries to Ukraine, known as reverse flow, was halted after Russia cut gas exports to those countries.
Meanwhile, concern for a new Russian-led offensive remains high with Ukrainian Interior Minister Arsen Avakov warning that there are currently 7,000 Russian soldiers in separatist-controlled areas of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, according to an interview with the INSIDER online newspaper published on Nov. 17.
Observers have witnessed a buildup or heavy armaments in eastern Ukraine in recent weeks. Determining who is a Russian soldier and who is a local separatist, however, remains difficult in a situation reminiscent of Crimea in March when the the presence of Russian soldiers was only confirmed by Putin after they had taken control of the peninsula.
Meanwhile the OSCE’s Special Monitoring Mission in Ukraine has reported seeing men in Russian military uniforms in eastern Ukraine as well as vehicles heading towards Russia marked “Cargo 200,” a term used in the Russian military for soldiers killed in action.
In an interview with the German ARD television channel, Russian President Vladimir Putin continued his discredited insistence that Russia is not involved in the conflict in Ukraine. He acknowledged that Russia would not allow separatists to be defeated.
“You want the Ukrainian central authorities to annihilate everyone there, all of their political foes and opponents. Is that what you want? We certainly don't. And we won't let it happen,” Putin said in the interview recorded ahead of the G20 convention in Brisbane Australia.
In Australia Putin received a chilly welcome with Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper telling him “Well I guess I’ll shake your hand, but I only have one thing to say to you: you need to get out of Ukraine,” according to his spokesman Jason MacDonald.
"The president answered that, unfortunately, this is impossible to do, because we are not there," Kremlin press secretary Dmitry Peskov told Interfax on Nov. 15.
Putin left the summit early saying he needed to sleep before morning meetings in Moscow.
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