Analysis: Is Russia's Putin Really Backing Down Over Ukraine?

NBC News: 26. June 2014

BY CASSANDRA VINOGRAD

Ukraine president Petro Poroshenko (L), German Chancellor Angela Merkel (C) and Russian President Vladimir Putin talk durin D-day ceremony on June 6th 2014.

After months of threatening the start of Cold War 2.0, Russia’s Vladimir Putin has shifted from troop movements to talk of compromise.

The change of tune has been cautiously welcomed by the West, but experts and analysts warn that the Russian president is unlikely to be backing down.

"It would be immensely foolish to act upon what Putin says," according to James Nixey, who heads the Russia and Eurasia Program at London-based think tank Chatham House. "It is a huge misreading of Vladimir Putin and everything that he stands for to think that he’s backing off now and it’s all over."

Analysts said that Putin’s comments are less conciliatory than a change in tactics toward achieving his great ambition: Russia’s re-emergence as a superpower.

"The tone has changed for a simple reason – it benefits him," Nixey said. "He doesn’t do anything that doesn’t benefit the Russian tactical game."

James Nixey, head of the Russia & Eurasia Program at Chatham House

The Russian leader has “an enormous toolbox” of various instruments to get what he wants – military capabilities, cyber-warfare, corruption and diplomacy, according to Nixey.

"Putin doesn’t really care which tools he uses – he just uses the ones that he thinks fit best with Russia’s strategic interest," Nixey said.

Putin touched off a diplomatic crisis and tense showdown with the West by annexing Crimea and moving Russian forces to the border with Ukraine.

"It's just a cover for what he wants ... He might still use tanks if it’s all going wrong"

Russian President Vladimir Putin enjoys spending time on army playgrounds or arms exhibitions, Behind the controls of a T-90AM tank.

But earlier this week, he instructed Russia’s parliament to repeal a law allowing Moscow to order a military intervention in Ukraine and expressed support for a ceasefire between the newly-installed Kiev government and pro-Russian rebels in the country’s east.

Western leaders – including Secretary of State John Kerry – have stressed that words must be translated to actions.

"It is critical for Russia to show in the next hours, literally, that they're moving to help disarm the separatists, to encourage them to disarm, to call on them to lay down their weapons and to begin to become part of a legitimate process," Kerry told reporters in Paris on Thursday.

Kerry noted that possible sanctions against Russia will be discussed later in the day by European Union leaders in Belgium."We all agree that they need to be ready. But our preference is not to have to be in a sanctions mode,” he added.

It would be wrong to take Putin’s recent comments as a response to sanctions, according to Nixey.

"He has a goal, he has an ambition, and an election in Ukraine or some fairly weak sanctions are not making him say, ‘Actually, you guys were right, you win,'" Nixey said. "It’s just a cover for what he wants, which is for Ukraine to be east of an East-West dividing line. He might still use tanks if it’s all going wrong."

Putin pictured in a helicopter watching a naval exercise of the Pacific Fleet as part of the military exercises in the Eastern Military District, Sakhalin region, Russia.

Moscow’s reasoning behind any escalation was publicly stated as ensuring the protection of Russian citizens in Ukraine, though ensuring that Kiev remains neutral and doesn’t join NATO heavily figured into Putin's previously hostile approach.

"Putin’s endgame is the maintenance of influence in the former Soviet Union and the establishment and security of his leadership at home, which play into each other," said Matthew Clements, who heads the Europe and CIS country analysis team at IHS. "It plays very popularly domestically to project a strong image of Russia internationally."

Matthew Clements, heads the Europe and CIS country analysis team at IHS

While Putin’s recent remarks and moves confirm that Russia does not wish to become militarily involved in Ukraine, Clements said that the country’s importance to Moscow as a key buffer to what it views as NATO’s encroachment remains the same.

"The endgame is making sure that Ukraine remains neutral and isn’t a member of NATO and that Russia still has significant influence in the country," said Clements. "It’s clear from Russia’s perspective now that its goal can probably be met without having military intervention."

That reflects Russia’s understanding that using military force in eastern Ukraine would be politically damaging, invoke much more serious sanctions and involve Russian forces in a costly and protracted campaign, according to Nixey.

"The threat of military intervention was something that served the purpose at the time," Clements said, adding that continued instability in eastern Ukraine has only helped Putin’s case. "What would be better from a Russian perspective now would be to say we’re pushing for a peaceful option."

Cassandra Vinograd is a Senior Writer and News Editor.

Royal Navy frigate forced to intercept two Russian military landing craft as they steamed up English Channel

Mail On line (UK): 26. June 2014

By KIERAN CORCORAN

Another close encounter!

• HMS Severn tracked and intercepted Russian war ships yesterday
• Royal Navy says the encounter is part of a 'well-established response'
• Comes days after frigate HMS Montrose met Russian warship in the Baltic
• This month RAF jets also scrambled to Russian fighters in same area

Interceptor: The HMS Severn

A Royal Navy patrol ship tracked down and intercepted two Russian landing craft in the English Channel yesterday.

HMS Severn, a 1,700-tonne River-class patrol ship armed with three machine guns, headed off the two military vessels sailing east through the Channel.

The ship 'closed and tracked' the Russian craft as they, which are thought to have been moving from the Mediterranean back to their home bases.

A Royal Navy spokesman said that the encounter was part of 'a well-established and standard response'.

Navy vessels have met Russian ships in the Channel several times this year already.

More...
Royal Navy frigate intercepts Russian vessel in the Baltic after warship strays close to Nato-protected waters
Spain lets Russian navy use its port: Madrid accused of hypocrisy after allowing three ships to dock at territories in North Africa
UK warship HMS Montrose departed to Baltic for military exercises to provide 'reassurance' to Eastern European allies

British forces have also come into contact with the Russians around NATO-controlled waters this month. The HMS Montrose, which was dispatched to the Baltic as 'reassurance', was dispatched amid reports of an unidentified warship.

Despite choppy seas and 30 knot winds, the crew identified the unknown ship as the 104-metre-long Steregushchiy-class frigate RFS Soobrazitelny skirting Danish waters as it sailed west in the Baltic Sea.

Dispatched: HMS Montrose, a Type 23 frigate, was taking part in a multinational exercise off the Danish coast when she was sent to investigate an unidentified surface ship picked up on radar

Identified: The 104metre-long Steregushchiy-class frigate RFS Soobrazitelny, a Russian warship, appeared to be carrying out routine manoeuvres in international waters

As HMS Montrose closed with the Russian vessel, a Russian Ilyushin IL-20 ‘Coot’ maritime patrol aircraft was detected and appeared overhead, circling the two ships.

It was one of the Royal Navy’s most significant encounters with Russian warships in the region since the Ukraine crisis began.

Navy chiefs said the show of strength demonstrated Nato’s resolve to protect its 28 members against any threat from the Kremlin.

Both the Russian vessel and aircraft appeared to be carrying out routine manoeuvres in international waters. 

Both incidents continue a series of encounters between British and Russian forces. In May the largest warship in Russia, the Admiral Kuznetsov, was escorted through the Channel by the high-tech HMS Dragon.

Bear in our backyard: The HMS Dragon, foreground, escorted the huge Admiral Kuznetsov battle cruiser through the English Channel earlier this year

At the time the Dragon's captain said: 'A Russian task group of this size has not passed by our shores in some time. Cutting edge, extremely capable and very versatile, a Type 45 Destroyer, such as HMS Dragon, is the ideal ship for the job.'

When the escort mission - which also involved French and Norwegian ships - took place, Defence Secretary Phillip Hammond pointed out that Russia has been investing heavily in its military in recent years. The observation comes as Western countries slash defence spending.

Mr Hammond told journalists: 'Russia is a very significant military power and that is something which all too often seems to get forgotten.'

British and Russian military forces have also met in the skies recently. Earlier this month two RAF fighters shadowed seven menacing Russian warplanes that flew too close to Baltic airspace.

Tensions: British fighter jets were scrambled to meet Russian forces earlier this month. Pictured below is an encounter between an RAF Typhoon (bottom) and a Russian SU-25 Flanker (top)

Encounter: RAF Typhoons, including the one pictured below, were sent to intercept Russian aircraft including the Antonov An26 Curl shown in the foreground

The fully-armed Typhoons from 3 (Fighter) Squadron were scrambled after unidentified aircraft were detected by NATO air defences in international airspace. All were subsequently identified as Russian.

Four Typhoons were deployed to the region in April under orders to respond forcefully to any violation of the airspace of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania which do not have their own air defence fighters and rely upon NATO.

Russia pressures Moldova and Ukraine ahead of signing of EU Association Agreement

The Washington Post: 26. June 2014

Moldova will sign a free trade pact with the EU on June 27. Moscow has been accused of putting pressure on Chisinau not to go ahead with it.

CHISINAU, Moldova — A new showdown is looming over former Soviet states’ ties to Europe — the same trigger that has ignited months of violence in Ukraine.

With some of those states planning to sign a landmark deal Friday that will draw them closer to the European Union, the Kremlin is beaming out urgent warnings about the consequences.

Russia has said it will flex its considerable muscle to squeeze any nation in the former Soviet orbit that seeks a future with Europe. Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia are facing intense pressure ahead of the signing of the deal, including threats of export bans and tightened immigration rules, as well as the specter of strengthened separatist movements. But the warnings may be backfiring, with leaders in all three countries saying Moscow’s ominous tone demonstrates more than ever why they need to pick a different path.

In Moldova, where decaying Austro-Hungarian mansions in the capital, Chisinau, testify to the once-grand heritage of Europe’s now-poorest nation, leaders say they are committed to the agreement, even if it makes their nation more impoverished in the short term in the event of a Russian backlash.

Many in this rural country, where annual economic output amounts to $3,800 per person, expect Moscow to follow through on warnings that it will ban Moldovan crop exports and expel some of Moldova’s large expatriate population in Russia. Many officials also worry that pro-Russian separatist movements will be energized in breakaway regions of this nation of 3.6 million people.

Russia’s threats have hardly been subtle: After a visit in May to the pro-Russian breakaway region of Transnistria, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin threatened to return in a plane armed with nuclear weaponry after his official jet had difficulty securing airspace permissions for his return flight.

Last year, ahead of winter, Rogozin told Moldovans that “I hope you don’t freeze,” a reference to their country’s complete dependence on Russian natural gas, which is used for heating and which Moscow has sometimes cut off during political disputes.

And in September, Russia declared that Moldovan wines did not meet Russian food safety standards, removing access to a major export market for a key Moldovan industry. (Wines from pro-Russian autonomous regions of Moldova have been deemed safe for Russian palates, however.) Many Moldovans are convinced that the apples and grapes that grow on their nation’s gently rolling hills are the next targets. Russia is their main export market, and E.U. regulations will keep most of the fruits out of Europe even after the agreement is signed.

Wine is a major export for the Moldavians, and huge areas of countryside are actually vineyards. Moldovan wines are famous in the former USSR countries (especially Russia), but in early 2006, wine trading relations with Russia changed abruptly, leaving Moldovan companies scrambling for new markets, including Western markets

Moldovan leaders, elected in 2009 on a pro-European platform, have said that after 23 years of post-Soviet life within Russia’s orbit, they are not convinced that they are the better for it.

“Since Moldova’s independence, it became, unfortunately, the poorest country in Europe, with the lowest salaries and pensions, with the highest gas prices,” Moldovan President Nicolae Timofti said in an interview.

So, he said, “there are advantages and disadvantages” to being a member of the Russia-dominated Commonwealth of Independent States, an association of former Soviet republics.

The Moldovan public is evenly split in its support for building ties with the E.U., opinion polls show, and politicians say they want to maintain relations with Russia as well. Overall, 26 percent of Moldova’s exports go to Russia and 47 percent to the European Union.

Members and supporters of the Socialist Party of Moldova protest against the Association Agreement between Moldova and E.U. in front of the US Embassy in Chisinau, Moldova on June 25.

“We don’t want to protect ourselves from Russia. We believe that our relationship with Russia should be developed with the respect of sovereignty. Our interest is one thing — to develop Moldova,” said Deputy Foreign Minister Iulian Groza. “But we don’t believe that by constraint you can force someone to marry you,” he added, alluding to Russia’s attempts to keep its neighbors at its side.

Fears of an outright Russian invasion have eased since March and April, when 40,000 Russian troops massed along the border with Ukraine. As Russian troops seized Ukraine’s autonomous Crimea region, there were concerns that they could roll forward.

“Moldova is not Crimea” rally at Russian Embassy in Chisinau, May 2014

Officials in Chisinau say they expect newly vigorous agitation from Transnistria, a Soviet throwback where a massive granite statue of Lenin stands in front of the main government building and a hammer and a sickle adorn the flag. Brand-new aquamarine public buses donated by Russia ply the streets of Transnistria’s capital, Tiraspol, bearing brightly colored slogans that pledge, “Into the future, together with Russia.”

This Tiraspol billboard, "In the future, Together with Russia," makes its intentions clear. (Tiraspol, capital of Transinistria, Moldova's breakaway region)

Groza and others said they hoped that bolstered E.U. ties also pull Transnistrians westward. As of mid-April, Moldovans can travel visa-free to the E.U. Transnistria residents who have Moldovan passports also will benefit.

The upheaval in the former Soviet world started late last year, when Russia began campaigning against former Soviet republics signing the package of economic, trade and political deals with the E.U. known as the Association Agreement, the first step toward membership to the bloc.

Russia persuaded Armenia to pull out of its E.U. discussions in September. Then it turned its attention to Ukraine, where President Viktor Yanukovych in November reversed course on plans to sign the agreement. That set off pro-European protests in Kiev and eventually led to Yanukovych’s February ouster.

But Russia’s moves have spurred neighbors to reorient westward even more quickly than they were contemplating. The deal-signing date for Moldova and Georgia was pushed up to June. Ukraine’s new president, Petro Poroshenko, said he wanted to sign at the same time.

Other countries with close ties to Russia also have become more cautious about binding themselves to their neighbor. Belarus and Kazakhstan signed a treaty in May establishing the Eurasian Union, Russian President Vladi­mir Putin’s signature attempt to build a Russian-led counterweight to the European Union, but it contains fewer provisions for political integration than he had initially sought.

“Russian behavior is irrational. If Russia wants to be able to promote more civilized policy, it had the chance to keep these territories in some soft, non-aggressive manner,” said Oazu Nantoi, an analyst at the Chisinau-based Institute for Public Policy.

Russian diplomats have logged many air miles in recent weeks visiting neighbors, including Moldova, to make a last-minute push to preserve relations with Moscow. Russia hopes to minimize the “negative impacts” of Moldova’s new E.U. ties, Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin said during a visit to Chisinau this month.

In Moldova, some in business say that the Russian threats are an impetus for them to modernize in a way they never needed to after the Soviet Union’s breakup.

“If Russia were going very well, there wouldn’t have been a logical need to change anything,” said wine producer Sergiu Galusca, who hopes to find customers for the high-quality wines he aspires to sell in the West. “But that model of business ended.”

In Ukraine, Signs of a Truce Unraveling

Bloomberg Businessweek: 26. June 2014

The wreckage of a Ukrainian armed forces helicopter lies in a field near the small town of Krasnoarmeysk, outside of Slavyansk on June 25, after it was shot down by separatists of the 'Donetsk People's Republic'

The war continues.

A ceasefire proclaimed by Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko has not been honored by the separatists, despite the hopes of policymakers in Moscow and Kiev. Although representatives of the self-proclaimed republic of Donetsk agreed to a ceasefire, separatists on June 23 shot down a Ukrainian army helicopter near Sloviansk. Ukrainian military checkpoints and border crossings were also fіred on.

After the incident with the helicopter, President Poroshenko said he probably would reverse his decision on a truce. The intent of at least some of the separatists is to keep fighting. “Truce—this is bulls***. There is no peace,” said Pavel Gubarev, one of the separatist leaders of Donetsk.

Gubarev also said he would agree to a truce when the Ukrainian army leaves the territory of “the Donetsk people’s republic.” His impossible demand makes it impossible to make peace in the region. Leonid Kuchma, Viktor Medvedchuk, and Nestor Shufrich, who came to negotiate from the Ukrainian side, haven’t secured the confidence of the separatists. A video filmed in front of the building where the Ukrainians and separatists talked shows a hostile crowd surrounding Kuchma’s car.

The separatists lack a leader who can guarantee that any agreement will actually be implemented. Separatist forces consist of several groups. In the Donetsk and Lugansk regions are groups of mercenaries from Russia, which the self-proclaimed republics can’t control. One of these groups is now in the city of Gorlovka. Its leader’s name is Botsman (Boatswain). He controls the situation in the city and answers to no boss in Ukraine. On his orders, Gorlovka’s official mayor Eugene Klep was arrested and imprisoned in the basement of the police building.

Pro-Russian separatists stand guard in Seversk, located near the town of Krasny Liman, Donetsk region

Every day mercenaries and volunteers from Russia continue to infiltrate the Donbass region of eastern Ukraine. Mercenaries are going to Ukraine to earn money, and their bosses don’t pay them to observe a truce.

Armed pro-Russian separatists are now in possession of several tanks which believed to be provided by Russia

When Viktor Medvedchuk and ex-President of Ukraine Leonid Kuchma—both friends of Vladimir Putin—decided to take part in negotiations, people thought that peace was finally possible. Now it is clear that Putin can’t control all the separatists. One of the military groups of Donetsk separatists is called the Russian Orthodox Army. They are religious fundamentalists, who believe that they protect Orthodox Christianity from the encroachment of the European devil. They care little about politics.

Almost all the experts and journalists of Ukraine are united in their assessment. It is too early to talk about a truce. The war will continue until the region is free of armed separatists and mercenaries. Otherwise the territory occupied by the separatists may turn into a European Somalia. The major cities of the Donetsk region already are reporting water shortages. Dozens of retail stores and banks don’t work, while small and midsize businesses have almost stopped operating. Reports of missing and dead people from the occupied territory come in every day. Donetsk Mayor Oleksandr Lukyanchenko said at his press conference on June 24 that the crime situation in the city has deteriorated. Despite the pause in antiseparatist operations, 27 people disappeared in Donetsk last week. Forty-seven cars were stolen, 42 of them commandeered by armed men on the road. They said they were taking the cars for the revolution.

Map shows situation as of June 20, prior to the cease fire, but front lines remained the same up to this moment.

Putin changes tack on Ukraine

Deutsche Welle : 26. June 2014

The upper house of the Russian parliament has withdrawn its permission to send troops into Ukraine. Analysts see several reasons why Vladimir Putin may have taken this step.

Only one senator voted against it. On Wednesday (25.06.2014), Russia's Federation Council, the upper house of the country's parliament, almost unanimously withdrew its permission to use Russian forces in Ukraine, an allowance originally granted at Vladimir Putin's request on March 1.

The resolution comes much too late, according to Lilia Shevtsova of the Carnegie Moscow Center.

Shevtsova says Putin's move is way too late

"Putin should have done this much sooner, straight after the annexation of Crimea," says the analyst. Within two to three weeks of the annexation of the Ukrainian peninsula, she says, it was clear that further annexations of regions in the south and east of Ukraine would be impossible.

Still, the current decision does show that Moscow is altering its tactics.

"Just a few months ago, the Kremlin was acting differently," Shevtsova told DW. Now, she added, Putin is working towards negotiations between Kyiv and the separatists that would bring a solution acceptable to both Moscow and the West.

Russia's move

For Cornelius Ochmann of the foundation for German-Polish cooperation, several factors could have contributed to the reversal on putting troops in Ukraine.

Ochmann says the separatists have no chance without Russian military support

"For one thing, the threat of further sanctions and the unity of western states," he told DW. Another reason might be the clear, pragmatic attitude of new Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, who has seized the initiative with his new peace plan for eastern Ukraine. "That means that Russia now has to react," said Ochmann. "Up until now, Russia has steered developments."

Ochmann says Putin has now made clear that he wants to be a partner to the West. In the face of the worsening economic situation and the draining of capital, a full-on confrontation would now make little sense. Not only that, says Ochmann, the pro-Russian forces in eastern Ukraine have recognized that they need mercenaries from Russia.

"That was not a movement from below, as in Crimea, where large parts of the population supported the annexation with Russia," he says.

Influence in eastern Ukraine

At the EU-Russia Center in Brussels, Eberhard Schneider sees a step toward de-escalation in the Federation Council's decision to withdraw Putin's ability to use Russian troops in eastern Ukraine. Putin, he says, wants talks between Kyiv and the separatists to lead to a constructive solution.

"If that doesn't happen, then Poroshenko will have to turn to plan B, as he said he would. He wants to move militarily against the separatists, and they really don't have a chance of surviving the conflict," Schneider told DW.

Poroshenko has proposed that regional representatives in the areas of Donetsk and Luhansk decide their fates themselves.

"They can choose their own governor and be autonomous in several ways," said Schneider. And he added that Moscow is probably satisfied with that, because it is unlikely to achieve much more at the moment. "In the medium-term, it wants to maintain influence on the people being sent as representatives of both regions."

Moscow's needs

But Shevtsova warns that the Kremlin has certainly not given up on the option of further destabilizing the east and south of Ukraine. The Ukrainian people, she said, will have to come to terms with the fact that they will be in Russia's shadow for some time. "Russia will remain an influence on that country," she said.

Nevertheless, Ochmann believes Moscow will not succeed in changing Ukraine's pro-European orientation. "If the Ukrainian people have chosen that, then even the Russian president won't be able to use military means to keep Ukraine from the EU." Accession to NATO, on the other hand, is another matter. "I don't think the Ukrainian people are interested in that," says Ochmann.

Schneider is also unconvinced that Ukraine will move closer to NATO. "NATO membership is out of the question," he said. The Russian Black Sea fleet at Sevastopol in Crimea hinders any attempt to station foreign troops there. The border question in Crimea, however, remains unanswered.