By William Watts and Eric Yep
This week’s Fed meeting could call the shots for oil prices.
Oil rebound fails as OPEC refuses to blink
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — An attempted rebound by oil futures gave way to fresh selling Monday, clearing the way for a new round of lows after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries offered no indication it’s ready to blink and cut production.
U.S. light, sweet crude futures for delivery in January CLF5, -2.54% pushed modestly higher in early action, buoyed in part by port disruptions in Libya before sinking back down. The nearby contract was down $1.33, or 2.3%, at $56.50 a barrel after trading as low as $55.87.
January Brent crude LCOF5, -0.87% on London’s ICE futures exchange was dragged lower, falling 52 cents, or 0.8%, to $61.33 a barrel.
“The bears are continuing to exploit the economic conditions that are aggressively against the oil markets at present. Despite already having dug down through various psychological support levels over recent weeks, there is still no floor in sight,” said Jameel Ahmad, chief market analyst at FXTM in London.
Over the weekend, Libya declared force majeure for the oil export terminals of Es Sider and Ras Lanuf as oil supplies were interrupted due to armed clashes, according to a Wall Street Journal report.
But a combination of heavy supply and worries over global demand continued to weigh on oil. As oil collapsed, U.S. stocks gave up early gains, falling into negative territory. While lower oil prices are seen as a boon to the U.S. economy, the accelerating decline has started to be viewed as a negative factor for stocks due, in part, to concerns that the collapse may reflect weakness in the global economy.
Abdalla Salem el-Badri, the head of OPEC, on Sunday said the oil cartel hasn’t set a fixed oil-price target.
Separately, United Arab Emirates oil minister Suhail Al-Mazrouei said OPEC would stand by its decision even if oil fell as low as $40 a barrel and will wait at least three months before considering an emergency meeting, Bloomberg reported. “We are not going to change our minds because the prices went to $60 or to $40,” Al-Mazrouei told Bloomberg Sunday at a conference in Dubai.
The U.S., China and Europe are scheduled to release economic data on Tuesday. “Expectations for this month’s PMI are favorable which should prevent a further [oil price] drop for the week,” analyst Daniel Ang at Phillip Futures said. He said stronger factory data may boost Nymex crude to $61.81 and Brent crude to $63.26 this week.
The U.S. Federal Reserve is also scheduled to meet this week, and a monetary policy statement is due on Wednesday after the meeting. Analysts expect that a rate hike is on the cards and any resulting impact on the U.S. dollar will also affect crude oil prices.
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The U.S. oil benchmark lost 12% last week and settled at its lowest value since May 15, 2009, on Friday. It has lost 24% of its value over the past three weeks alone. Brent crude lost 10% last week and settled at its lowest since July 14, 2009, on Friday. It has fallen in 13 of the past 15 trading sessions.
Nymex reformulated gasoline blendstock for January RBF5, -0.54% — the benchmark gasoline contract — fell 0.7% to $1.5863 a gallon. Natural gas for January delivery NGF15, -1.05% fell 1.3% to $3.745 per million British thermal units.
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