4 February 2015

Central Bank of Russia head: Russian economy will lose $160 billion annually if the oil price slumps to $45 per barrel

Censor.NET: 04. February 2015


The Bank of Russia expects annual losses of the Russian economy to reach $160 billion a year at an oil price of $45 per barrel. Previously, the regulator began to work out the stress scenario implicating the price of $40 per barrel.
Central Bank of Russia head Elvira Nabiullina told journalists, reports RBK.
"We had to make unpopular, painful decisions but we believe they were absolutely necessary," Nabiullina said, explaining the Bank of Russia decision on rate increase and floating ruble.
"It is impossible to imagine even in mathematical terms another such slump in oil prices," Nabiullina said. Also, according to the Central Bank, there will be no pressure from foreign debt and aggregate demand, which will subside.

Bank of Russia first deputy chairperson Ksenia Yudaeva said in mid-January that the regulator is working out another stress scenario of economic development which considers the reduction of oil price to $40 per barrel, noting that "the situation is already quite close to it."

According to the economic projection of the National Research University - Higher School of Economics, issued at the end of Dec. 2014, the Russian economy will slump by 6.5% in 2015 at an oil price of $50 per barrel. The investments will decrease by 21.8%, retail turnover - by 9.6%, net outflow will amount to $135 billion. The inflation will reach 15%.

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