By James G. Neuger, Daria Marchak and Milda Seputyte
Flags of the 28 NATO member countries outside NATO headquarters, Brussels, Belgium
NATO said there’s a risk of Russia sending troops into Ukraine under the “pretext” of a humanitarian or peacekeeping mission after President Vladimir Putin massed soldiers on his country’s western border.
“We’re not going to guess what’s on Russia’s mind, but we can see what Russia is doing on the ground -- and that is of great concern,” Oana Lungescu, a spokeswoman for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, said by e-mail today. “The latest Russian military buildup further escalates the situation and undermines efforts aimed at finding a diplomatic solution to the crisis. This is a dangerous situation.”
Oana Lungescu, a spokeswoman for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization
The standoff over Ukraine is escalating in the wake of the U.S. and the European Union hitting Russia with the toughest sanctions yet, sparking Putin to order economic retaliation. In Ukraine’s easternmost regions, government troops are pressing ahead with an offensive that’s pegged back pro-Russian insurgents and prompted the government in Kiev to say yesterday that victory was near.
Warnings of the threat of invasion are intensifying after reports that Russia has massed forces on its neighbor’s border in the biggest military buildup since troops were withdrawn from the area in May.
‘Fig Leaf’
“Putin will likely aim at a fig leaf policy with an incursion under the guise of a peacekeeping operation, which would put Russian military boots on the ground,” Amanda Paul, an analyst at the European Policy Centre in Brussels, said by e-mail. “As other conflicts in the former Soviet Union have shown, once there is a Russian military presence it usually never leaves but gets larger and plays a very unproductive role.”
The escalation is also rattling global markets. U.S. stock-index futures declined, after the index closed at a two-month low. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures expiring next month fell 0.3 percent to 1,907.6 at 11:19 a.m. in London, erasing earlier gains of as much as 0.3 percent. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index dropped 1.5 percent to 327.23 at 11:27 a.m. in London, erasing the benchmark’s 6.5 percent rally from the beginning of this year through its June 10 high.
Poland, a NATO member that borders Ukraine and has been among the EU nations seeking the toughest response to the Kremlin’s policy over Ukraine, earlier today said the risk of a Russian invasion has increased.
Rising Risk
Poland has “reason to believe” that the risk of an incursion is “greater than a few days ago,” Prime Minister Donald Tusk told reporters in Warsaw today. His foreign minister, Radoslaw Sikorski, yesterday said that any incursion would be under the guise of a peacekeeping operation. Russia yesterday called for a humanitarian mission to eastern Ukraine, which is on the verge of a “catastrophe,” the Foreign Ministry in Moscow said on its website.
Ukraine considers Russia’s proposal of humanitarian aid to be “cynical,” blaming its neighbor for not allowing the military conflict to end, Andriy Lysenko, a spokesman for the country’s defense and security council, told reporters in Kiev today.
Russia has deployed 45,000 soldiers, 160 tanks and as many as 1,360 armored vehicles, Andriy Lysenko, a Ukrainian military spokesman, told reporters in Kiev yesterday. There are also 192 Russian warplanes and 137 military helicopters, as well as artillery systems and multiple rocket launchers, he said.
While estimates cited by Ukraine include about 20,000 Russian forces in Crimea, those by the U.S. and NATO don’t.
‘Key Metric’
On that basis, Rear Admiral John Kirby, a Pentagon spokesman, told reporters yesterday that Russia still has “north of 10,000 troops” on Ukraine’s border, and NATO Deputy Secretary General Alexander Vershbow said in a posting on Twitter that the number is about 20,000.
Pentagon Press Secretary Navy Rear Adm. John Kirby
“The numbers aren’t the key metric here,” Kirby said. “What matters is that they continue to reinforce these units, that they are very capable and very ready across what we call combined arms capabilities -- armor, artillery, air defense, special forces, and that they are closer to the border than they were in the spring.”
Ukraine expressed alarm about the new deployment of Russian forces as it pressed an offensive against pro-Russian separatists. There’s “active combat taking place” on the outskirts of Donetsk, with two civilians killed, the city council said on its website last night.
Ukrainian forces were attacked by Russian troops over the border, shelling them for four hours yesterday in the Luhansk region, Lysenko said. Eighteen Ukrainian soldiers were killed and 54 wounded in the last 24 hours, during which time they engaged the rebels in 25 firefights, Lysenko said.
Three civilians were killed amid overnight shelling in the city of 1 million, which also damaged infrastructure and residential buildings, the Donetsk city council said on its website today.
Worsening Situation
The humanitarian situation in Ukraine is steadily worsening, John Ging, director of humanitarian operations for the United Nations, said at an emergency meeting of the Security Council yesterday in New York. He said the fighting has killed at least 1,367 people -- both civilians and combatants -- and wounded 4,087 since mid-April.
About 3.9 million people live in areas directly affected by violence and face imminent security threats, while more than 1,000 people flee conflict zones every day, said Ging, who cited a Russian estimate that 740,000 Ukrainians have crossed into Russia since the beginning of the year.
The UN’s refugee agency estimates the number of internally displaced Ukrainians at more than 117,000, according to a statement on its website yesterday.
Ukraine’s armed forces are pushing ahead with their campaign after the U.S. and the EU increased pressure on Putin over his backing of the rebels with an expansion of sanctions. Last month’s downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17, which the U.S. says was probably caused by a missile fired by the insurgents, has helped harden attitudes against Russia. The rebels and Putin’s government blame Ukrainian forces.
‘Emergency Measures’
While Russia has repeatedly denied any involvement in the conflict, the U.S. and its EU allies say Putin is supplying the insurgents with weapons, manpower and financing and say he could stop the war if he reined in the separatists.
Russian Ambassador to the UN Vitaly Churkin told the Security Council that the situation in Ukraine, particularly in Donetsk and Luhansk, is “disastrous” and called on “the international community to take emergency measures to improve the humanitarian measures” in the area.
The situation in Luhansk, a city of more than 400,000, remains “critical” as residents have no access to electricity and water, while both fixed-line and mobile phone connections are off, the local council said on its website. Shops are closed, limiting the availability of food and fuel, it said.
The pro-Russian separatist forces, which now number about 15,000, up from 300 when the conflict started, hold less than half the territory they did four weeks ago, Ukrainian Defense Minister Valeriy Geletey said in a BBC interview broadcast this week.
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